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美学者称五因素决定中美开战

2015-12-14 16:42:40   环球网

5. 进攻性网络行动是否能够影响战术结果?

中国的网络情报搜集行动是众所周知的。目前外界还不太清楚的是解放军运用网络武器干扰、迷惑和破坏美军感应和指挥网络的能力到底如何,尤其是在军事行动的关键时期。中国网络情报行动的成功想必表明其在进攻性网络攻击领域有着同样高的竞争力,即使该能力还有待观察。

就其本身而言,美国也公认拥有高水平的进攻性网络作战能力。尽管在近几年有着预算的压力,五角大楼依然一直扩充着网络容量。还建立了一个全国性的网络测试范围,定期进行部队之间的网络作战模拟和培训。

即便如此,美国国防部几乎没有讨论过他们的进攻性网络战能力,也没有公开证实拥有这种能力。进攻性网络行动将会对对手战术行动产生什么样的影响目前仍是个迷,至少对外人来说是这样的。外界认为美国以色列联合针对伊朗原子能计划的蠕虫病毒攻击只是暂时性的破坏,从计划长期规划来看并没有什么改变。由于没有有关进攻性网络影响更清晰的演示,对手可能对网络对军事行动的影响程度存在广泛的争论。

如果有关这些或者更多其他的争论继续壮大,那么双方的军事计划和决策者们将会抓住和错失占据军事优势的机会。历史上有很多这样的争论,导致双方都得出结论认为他们各自的作战计划都是行之有效的。那么只有战争才能分清到底谁是对的:

伊拉克最近针对伊朗的行动会像1991年其军队在科威特反击联军的过程中造成巨大伤亡吗?萨达姆认为是肯定的,而美军指挥官则并不这么认为。

1942年,日军是否能够打下马来半岛丛林,并从北部占领新加坡?山下将军的答案是肯定的,而珀西瓦尔将军却不这么认为。

1982年英国海军是否能够成功完成跨洋两栖突击,夺回福克兰群岛呢?阿根廷指挥官认为这并不可能,而英国指挥官则认为肯定可以。

当今时代,中国和美国军队的计划和决策者们好像就西太平洋地区军事力量的关系达成平衡。但是随着局势的发展,这种平衡将会打破,战争爆发的可能性大大增加。如果这些变为现实,那么解放军武力对抗未来代表着美国自由的巡航舰队或者其他类似行为的诱惑将会大大增加。

美国官员可以通过改变以上讨论的五种战略,或者强调其他可能的新的能够消除有关升级和战争造成后果的怀疑的概念的方式避免这种危险分歧的继续发展。(知远/北风)

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