Taiwan can’t gamble on cross-Straits crisis

Taiwan authorities claimed that People's Liberation Army (PLA) fighter jets crossed the so-called "middle line" of the Taiwan Straits at Sunday noon. Will the Straits situation reach a new stage? Possibly, but not necessarily.

台湾军方称解放军战机星期天中午时分飞越了所谓“海峡中线”，台海局势会翻开新的一页吗？有可能，但也不一定。

First, the "middle line" is fictitious and psychological comfort to the Taiwan authorities. The Chinese mainland has never recognized it. Moreover, the two sides across the Straits probably have different definitions of the "middle line." Hence, even if PLA fighter jets did cross it, how the situation develops depends on Taiwan and US reactions.

首先，“海峡中线”是一条假想的心理线，大陆从未承认过它，而且双方对这条中线的理解和认识也未必一致。所以即使台方所通报的军情是真的，它也可大可小，全看美台双方下一步作何反应。

Washington has gone too far by sending warships to sail through the Straits thrice this year. Many people tended to think the PLA's move was a response to recent provocation

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 by Taiwan and the US. If they restrain themselves, the crossing of PLA fighter jets over the "middle line" will be nothing serious. However, if the two continue to make provocative moves, the cross-Straits situation is bound to become more uncertain.

美台勾结在加剧，美国军舰今年以来三过台湾海峡，这很过分。很多人都倾向于认为，军机强势过中线，这是大陆对美台近期挑衅的回应。如果美台从此收敛些，解放军战机偶过“海峡中线”就是件小事。但如果美台不思收敛，反将解放军的这一行动视为挑衅，且进一步示强，那么台海紧张势必加码升级，走向严重的不确定性。

The cross-Straits situation is complicated as three sides are involved, while the main players of the game are two of them - Beijing and Washington.

台海局势的一个微妙之处在于，这是个三方格局，中国大陆、美国还有台湾，但它的主要博弈方又是北京和华盛顿这两方。

Taiwan's real interest is long-term peace, which is always marginalized by the politics in the island. Some politicians in Taiwan prefer to put forward extreme policies to rival the mainland. The preconditions for such measures are peace where wars will not really break out. Taiwan authorities make people believe they fear nothing, but in fact, the island cannot withstand the cross-Straits situation going toward deep turmoil.

台湾的真正利益是争取长久和平，但台湾的选举政治常常会被极端势力挟制，将这一利益挤到边缘位置，而把与大陆对抗的极端路线推到前台。这种路线的前提是和平的坚固可靠，因为战争的危险不会真的到来，所以台湾当局可以摆弄什么都不怕的姿态。但其实台当局是怕的，因为整个台湾社会对台海地区走向深度动荡的承受力很低。

China and the US are big countries who can afford military frictions in certain areas. But for the island, it won't be that simple.

中美是两个大国，对于局部出现军事不友好的情况并不很在乎。但台湾就不一样了。

If the fighter jets of the PLA and the US Air Force have an encounter in the skies over Taiwan, it will have a strong psychological impact on Taiwan people. The mainland could also retaliate against US moves in the region.

假如美国军机在台海上空出现，解放军的战机升空，双方空军在台海上空大搞假格斗表演，最受不了的将是台湾人的心脏。大陆届时还势必报复美方在台海军事活动的升级。

Recently, Chinese mainland scholars have been engaged in a broader discussion on how to cope with the growing provocations from the island and the US. More and more people suggest PLA fighter jets fly over the island.

近来大陆学界在越来越开放地讨论如何对付美台挑衅升级，解放军派战机飞越台湾岛的选项被更多的人提及。

As cross-Straits military tensions intensify, the probability of occasional military frictions or limited military conflicts will rise. It's possible that the fighter jet will be shot down in a military clash, or PLA conducts targeted elimination at certain military base on the island that could threaten the mainland.

随着台海军事紧张加剧，发生偶发性军事摩擦或者有限军事冲突的可能性将会增加。比如双方战机交火并有飞机被击落，定点清除对大陆构成威胁的某个台军基地，这些可能性在未来都无法完全排除。

Does this mean China is about to resolve the Taiwan question using military means? Not necessarily. A peaceful reunification is the mainland's basic policy toward the island. But it doesn't mean giving up using military forces.

这是要武力解决台湾问题吗？并非。和平统一是大陆的基本对台政策，但和平统一不意味着军事上一点都不能动。

We don't need a real war to resolve the Taiwan question. The mainland can adopt various measures to make Taiwan ruled by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) turn into a Lebanon situation, which "Taiwan independence" forces cannot afford.

另外，台海问题不需要通过一场真正的战争来解决，但大陆可以有各种手段将民进党统治的台湾“黎巴嫩化”，给予“台独”势力无法承受的打击。

If Washington sends wrong signals that lead to continuously escalating tensions in the region, it would be a nightmare for Taiwan authorities. If the DPP puts the island in the middle of a high-level military storm, can it sustain the rule?

如果美国发出错误信号，导致台海军事紧张不断升级，我们相信它终将成为台湾当局的一场噩梦。如果民进党将台湾推向高级别军事对抗的电闪雷鸣中，届时还能在台上坐得住吗？

Once the cross-Straits crisis gets out of control, the Chinese mainland is capable of fighting to the end, while both the island and the US have something to worry about. The DPP fears that it would lose its power. Washington doesn't want to be involved in another major war and is also concerned that Taiwan people will no longer accept its support.

所以说，一旦台海危机失控，大陆方面有足够的意志和资本拼到底，而美台双方都有各自的顾忌。民进党怕政权不保，华盛顿则既怕真的卷入一场大战，又怕台湾民意厌倦动荡而不再接受美国的支持。

Taiwan and the US must restrain themselves as the cross-Straits crisis has already turned into a gamble they cannot afford.

我们最后想说的是，美台必须克制，因为台海危机已经是它们玩不起的一场赌博。