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中央密集开会研究下半年经济 这四字何以如此重要?

2017-07-27 08:34:47   中国青年网

7月24日的中央政治局会议,分析研究当前经济形势,部署下半年经济工作。通稿里,有一个表述引起了岛叔的注意——紧紧抓住处置“僵尸企业”这个牛鼻子,更多运用市场机制实现优胜劣汰。

说这话的背景,是要深入推进供给侧改革,推进“三去一降一补”。也就是说,去杠杆、去产能、去库存、降成本、补短板的五大经济任务,处置僵尸企业是“牛鼻子”——这个比喻,可以看作是首要切入点,也是影响全局的关键节点。

如果联系7月中旬的全国金融工作会议的话,习近平的表述则是,“把国有企业降杠杆作为重中之重,抓好处置’僵尸企业’工作”。

处置僵尸企业,我们都听过。但对处置僵尸企业有如此高度的定位,这就有意思了。

数字

简单来说,“僵尸企业”,是指长期入不敷出,依靠财政或银行“输血”才能维持生存的企业。

这样的企业有多少呢?去年国资委摸底梳理出,中央企业需要专项处置和治理的“僵尸企业”和特困企业2041户,涉及资产3万亿元。另外,2016年中国人民大学在《中国僵尸企业研究报告》中指出,电力、热力、冶金、石油加工等行业中僵尸企业的比例较高,其中,钢铁的比例是51.43%、房地产为44.53%、建筑装饰31.76%。

报告还指出,从所有制来看,国有和集体企业中“僵尸企业”的比例最高,远高于民营企业、港澳台及外商企业中的比例。可见,“把国有企业降杠杆作为重中之重”就显得尤为重要。

为什么长期入不敷出,却依然不市场出清,还要留着、甚至银行还要继续给予输血呢?

依赖

答案也不复杂。

从行业分布看,“僵尸企业”主要分布于钢铁、煤炭、电力、冶金、石油加工等传统经济部门和产能过剩行业。在中国经济高速增长的三十年间,这些行业为城市化进程、基础设施建设输送了源源不断的“钢筋水泥”“铁公机”,为中央和地方政府贡献了可观的利税,也解决了大量的就业、承担了社会保障功能;中国也跃升为世界第二大经济体。

事实上,每一轮危机后,传统部门都会被当做经济的“稳定器”。特别是在国际金融危机后,外需冲击、出口急剧下降,以“四万亿”为代表的投资计划,和配套的货币宽松,传统投资这驾“马车”让中国经济增速V型反转。但“药方”过猛,带来了“一放就乱”、盲目上产能、大量举债等后遗症,拖慢了经济结构转型升级的步伐。

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