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4月CPI涨回“1时代” 专家称不会引发通胀担忧

2017-05-11 06:03:39   北京晨报

全国居民消费价格指数(CPI)重回“1时代”。昨日,国家统计局发布数据显示,4月份CPI同比上涨1.2%。而这次回升,非食品行业成为拉动物价上涨的重要领域。

这次是非食品价格推涨了CPI

今年以来,CPI增速出现了较大的震动。在1月份CPI涨幅触及2.5%之后,2月、3月CPI同比上涨均不足1%,其中2月份最低,同比上涨0.8%。

值得注意的是,4月份CPI同比涨幅回升至1.2%,非食品价格成为推动CPI上涨的主要因素。国家统计局的数据显示,从环比上看,非食品价格环比上涨0.2%,影响CPI上涨0.18个百分点。而从同比上看,非食品价格同比上涨2.4%,影响CPI上涨约1.90个百分点。

国家统计局城市司高级统计师绳国庆表示,在非食品行业中,医疗、旅游涨幅最高。其中,医疗保健价格上涨5.7%,旅游价格上涨4.2%,交通和教育服务价格均上涨3.4%,居住价格上涨2.4%。

而以往推动CPI上涨的主要动力,食品价格这次却在下降。

数据显示,食品价格受鲜菜和猪肉等价格继续下降的影响环比下降0.6%,影响CPI下降约0.11个百分点。而从同比看,食品价格同比下降3.5%,影响CPI下降约0.73个百分点。其中,鲜菜价格下降21.6%,蛋、猪肉、禽肉价格分别下降11.4%、8.1%和2.7%。

绳国庆表示,4月份扣除食品和能源的核心CPI同比上涨2.1%,比上月扩大0.1个百分点,保持基本平稳态势。

CPI、PPI剪刀差缩小

4月份工业生产者出厂价格(PPI)也出现了新变化。从环比看,4月份PPI由升转降,是去年7月份以来的首次下降。而从同比看,受能源原材料等大宗商品价格下降的影响,4月份PPI上涨6.4%,涨幅比上月回落1.2个百分点。

国家统计局的数据显示,在调查的40个工业大类行业中,34个行业产品价格同比上涨,比上月增加1个。其中,石油和天然气开采业价格上涨43.0%,煤炭开采和洗选业价格上涨40.4%,石油加工业价格上涨27.5%,黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业价格上涨22.3%,有色金属冶炼和压延加工业价格上涨15.8%,化学原料和化学制品制造业价格上涨9.2%。上述六大行业合计影响PPI同比上涨约4.9个百分点,占总涨幅的76.6%。

不过,中国银行国际金融研究所研究员周景彤表示,由于近期钢铁、煤炭、铜和原油等能源原材料行业价格在下降,再考虑到中国经济增长动能可能放缓以及PPI翘尾因素逐月变小的影响,未来一段时间PPI涨幅还将继续回落。

实际上,此前业界担心的CPI与PPI巨大的剪刀差,在4月份已经缩小至5.2个百分点。在周景彤看来,PPI涨幅放缓,将减轻其向CPI传导的压力。

而在民生银行首席研究员温彬看来,受去年基数效应影响,预计二、三季度CPI涨幅进一步回升、PPI涨幅进一步回落。也就是说,CPI与PPI之间的“剪刀差”还将进一步缩小。

货币政策收紧的必要性已下降

CPI重返“1时代”,在不少业内人士看来,并不会引发通胀的担忧。

周景彤表示,未来一段时间,能源原材料等大宗商品价格同比放缓环比转正为负,既反映了其前期涨幅较大面临回调的压力,更反映了宏观经济动力趋弱大环境下对相关商品的需求放缓。

“近期通胀无需多虑,未来货币政策进一步收紧的空间和必要性在下降,将把更多注意力放到防范金融风险上来。”周景彤表示。

温彬也认为,今年以来,为实现金融部门去杠杆、降低系统性金融风险,市场利率不断走高,但从下一步经济走势看,货币政策将继续保持稳健中性基调不变。

责任编辑:穆启春 CN063
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