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国家地震预警工程即将实施 重点区域可秒级预警

2016-12-22 18:18:24   新华社

新华网12月22日报道,记者当天从中国地震局获悉,我国“十三五”期间的重大工程——国家地震烈度速报和预警工程即将实施,目前正处在项目立项的最后阶段。

据中国地震台网中心介绍,国家地震烈度速报和预警工程实施完成之后,我国将会在包括华北地区、南北地震带、东南沿海地震带、新疆天山地震带的重点区域形成地震预警的能力,届时,将能为全国提供分钟级的地震烈度速报,并在这些重点区域提供秒级的地震预警服务。

地震预警,是指在地震发生后在很短的秒级时间内完成地震参数的测定,并把信息向震中附近区域的公众推送,使公众能抢在真正的地震破坏到达之前采取有效的避险措施。

目前,我国地震预测预报水平到底怎么样?中国地震台网中心主任潘怀文表示,自1966年河北邢台地震后,我国地震科技工作者在近50年时间内持续进行着长期、中期、短期和临震不同时间尺度预报的探索,取得了对一些大地震预测预报的成功案例。

据介绍,从长期预测来看,我国过去的地震中,有很多的确发生在我国所做的长期预测预报的区域范围内。从中期预测来看,即以年为尺度来看未来地震的趋势,我国年度报准率大约在30%左右。由于准确率不高,这样的预测结果仅供各级政府作为有关防灾减灾工作加强预防措施的参考依据。而地震的短期和临震预测的难度更大,目前成功率很低。

潘怀文说,中国地震台网对目前国内发生的地震能快速测定地震参数,并向公众和各级政府机构报送信息,“和国际同行相比我们的能力不差”。

同时,他也坦言地震预测是国际性难题,全球的地震科学家都在对此进行长期努力,但大多数时候还是人类面对巨大地震灾害的挫折与无奈。至今,我国的地震预测预报还在持续探索。

责任编辑:李皓 CN002
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