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媒体六问雾霾:京津冀污染源真的是蒙陕晋吗?

2016-12-21 05:53:57   新京报

重霾来袭,截至12月20日9时,中东部82个城市出现重度及以上污染,京津冀及周边区域24城市出现了小时浓度“爆表”。北京也在20日陷入6级严重污染。京津冀的污染源来自哪里、抗霾是否只能靠风、空气治理究竟有没有起到作用……针对社会公众对于重污染天气存在的一些疑问,多位专家对此进行了解答。

昨日,建国路,国贸地区诸多高楼被笼罩在雾霾中。新京报记者 浦峰 摄

1京津冀雾霾,蒙陕晋是主要污染源?

中国环境科学研究院研究员柴发合表示,大量的观测分析和模式研究都表明,京津冀大气重污染主要是本地积累加上外地传输导致的。其中,京津冀三地自身的排放量大是最主要的因素,对PM2.5污染的贡献约为70%左右。周边省市的区域传输对京津冀PM2.5污染的贡献约占30%左右,其中影响最大的是山东、河南两省的污染排放。此外,山西、内蒙古和陕西的排放对京津冀PM2.5污染也有一定的贡献,但不是污染的主要原因。

柴发合说,京津冀区域国土面积虽然只占全国的2%,但2014年常住人口占全国的8%,煤炭消费占全国的9.2%,单位面积SO2、NOX、烟粉尘排放量分别约为全国平均水平的3倍、4倍和5倍。在冬季采暖期间,京津冀本地污染物排放强度进一步加大,是重污染天气高发的根本原因,一旦气象条件不利,就可能形成重污染。

2“煤改气”加剧北京雾霾污染?

中科院大气物理所研究员王自发介绍,按照我国当前的天然气消耗量计算,假如全部转化成液态水,平摊在全国人口集中的东部地区,厚度连0.1毫米/年都不到,仅占大气中可降水量的几十万分之一,影响微乎其微。所以说,“煤改气”不会显著增加北京市大气中的湿度,不是北京地区“丰富水汽”主要来源。

南开大学教授冯银厂表示,无论是燃煤、燃气还是燃油,都会排放氮氧化物。“煤改气”是否会导致氮氧化物的升高,主要取决于改气之前煤炭的燃烧方式和煤炭品质、改气之后采取的燃烧技术等因素。如果采用了低氮燃烧技术,氮氧化物的排放量就会降低。

他说,我国脱硝比脱硫的起步晚,近年来大气环境中的氮氧化物浓度下降并不像二氧化硫那么显著。氮氧化物浓度的增加可能会造成二次污染,但这是可控的。而且污染成因和机理非常复杂,不能因为氮氧化物浓度没有明显下降,颗粒物污染依然严重,就说是煤改气造成的,这是不科学的。

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