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中俄军舰现身钓鱼岛毗连区让日本紧张 怕中俄联手

2016-06-12 06:42:15   

8日夜间至9日凌晨,俄罗斯和中国军舰从两个方向先后进入日本方面所称的钓鱼岛“毗连区”,日方描述俄舰有3艘,中国军舰为1艘。日方对此做了大量解读和猜测,困扰于这是否意味着“中俄联手对美日同盟发信号”。东京对中国大使提出抗议,但对俄方军舰通过钓鱼岛毗连区则强撑着给出“合理”解释,只提醒对方“注意”,不想扩大事态。

俄方对其军舰正常通过“钓鱼岛毗连区”受到日本“重大提醒”表示惊讶,至于俄舰与中方军舰是否在“配合行动”,俄方拒绝回答,中方也没有回应。

俄中军舰“几乎同时”出现在钓鱼岛附近,双方对“同时出现”的性质都不说明,这就是围绕这件事的主要事实。额外的事实是日本挺紧张的,议论了好几天。

中俄海空军一旦在西太平洋走向战略上的合作,似乎是日本的噩梦。东京对此好像比华盛顿还紧张。当下的态势是,美国同时挤压中俄战略空间,日本压中拉俄,在整个西方面前,中俄的战略处境则有相似之处。

美国仍在逆历史大潮流强化其全球的军事同盟体系,日本则成了配合美国这一战略最积极的盟友。其实中俄都面对美国压力,双方发展“同盟关系”并非毫无动力,中俄国内都有主张双方“联手对抗美国”的声音,但是两国领导人没有那样做,应当说中俄对21世纪的人类社会不走向严重分裂和对抗是做出了贡献的。

日本为何对俄中军舰同时出现在钓鱼岛附近海域那么紧张?因为它心里有鬼。美日同盟本身对亚太和平的破坏性越来越突出,周围世界不可能长期对美日的过分做法毫无反应。

中俄坚持了全面战略协作伙伴的弹性关系,但是两国在全球问题上的合作越来越多,两国的陆上和海上联合军演也日趋频繁,中俄走近的最大推力显然是美西方对两国的各种挤压。中俄在战略上都明白,一旦任何一方被压垮对两国都非常不利,因而不让彼此因外在原因陷入全面的困境,这已是两国各自都相当成熟的战略认识。

无论中国还是俄罗斯都是大国,两国总体上都有能力独自应对挑战。与此同时两国都对美国纠集盟友对另一方施压看不惯,认为这不应是21世纪处理国际纠纷的方式。

美日和西方经常谈论中俄“走近”的话题,可谓对中俄合作高度敏感,这种敏感性说到底来自它们自己在国际上大搞山头主义,它们知道自己对中俄的挤压不正当,损害了中俄的国家利益。它们对中俄是否会联手进行反制感到担心。

这种担心是必要的。中俄加强合作应对挑战还有巨大空间,它们会发展成什么样,恐怕与美日及美西方是不是会越做越过分有关。美日如果真不希望中俄在西太平洋上有更紧密的战略协同,那么它们自己就多克制一些好了。美国不应追求严重威胁中俄安全的绝对军事优势,也不应用它的联盟体系让中俄产生窒息感,日本也不要在它同美国的同盟关系上太高调了,刺激中俄。

日本怕美国,也怕俄罗斯,因为两国都揍过它。东京这次对中俄军舰出现在钓鱼岛附近海域采取完全不同的态度,让它的形象显得尤其滑稽。这似乎在告诉世界究竟应该怎样对付它。

责任编辑:丁勇 CN007
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