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九寨沟旅游何时恢复?专家:三四个月后余震才会减少

2017-08-09 16:33:46   新京报

新京报快讯(记者信娜)经中国地震台网正式测定,8月8日21时19分,四川阿坝州九寨沟县发生7.0级地震。数小时后的8月9日7时27分,新疆博尔塔拉州精河县发生6.6级地震。那么,备受关注的九寨沟旅游预计何时能恢复?对此,专家表示,发生强震后,两地仍有发生较强余震的可能性。一般情况下,强震之后三四个月,余震才会有所减少。

九寨沟仍有6级左右地震风险

强震之后,是否还有发生地震的风险?中国地震台网中心地震预报部主任、研究员蒋海昆说,初步认为,九寨沟地区接下来仍有发生6级左右地震的风险。

中国地震台地震预报研究所研究员陈会忠表示,一般来说,发生6.6级地震后,还会发生5级左右的强余震。

九寨沟一星期内曾发生两次7.2级地震

为何认定将发生强烈余震?对此,蒋海昆解释说,历史上,九寨沟地区曾发生过双震型的地震。1976年,该地区曾在一个星期内发生了两次7.2级地震。他解释,目前来看,发生7级地震后,再发生5到6级的余震是完全可能的。相比而言,目前所发生的余震活动相对较弱,相当于一直未释放开。在这种情况下,后续会有强余震起伏的可能性,是否达到6级仍有待确定。

“对九寨沟景区整体影响有限”

此次九寨沟地震发生在四川阿坝州九寨沟县,震中距离九寨沟县城35公里。蒋海昆介绍,阿坝州地貌错综复杂,震区50公里范围内人口密度为9人/平方公里。

其中,九寨沟县隶属于阿坝藏族羌族自治州,与甘肃省文县、舟曲、迭部三县连界。地势西高东低,海拔在2000米以上。矿产资源较丰富,地处中国六大金成矿带之一的川西北金三角区内。境内九寨沟风景区是享誉中外的旅游景点。该县面积5290平方公里,下辖3镇14乡,2015年人口约8.1万人。

强震是否会对九寨沟景区产生影响?对此,蒋海昆推测,会发生陷落等地标破坏,但对景区整体影响仍有限。

陈会忠则认为,7级地震为强烈地震,破坏性较强。同时,震中地区在九寨沟沟口区域,会对其旅游设施造成破坏,恢复需要时间。

三四个月后余震会有所减少

对于九寨沟景区何时能够开放,陈会忠表示,强震之后,一般情况下,三四个月后余震会有所减少。他解释,大地震释放能量的时间较长。例如,汶川地震发生约10年后,该地区仍会发生4级左右地震。因此,陈会忠预测,景区何时能够开放,有能力接待游客,时间上也无法推算。

责任编辑:李皓 CN002
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