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郑永年:印度赶不上中国,因他们缺少秦始皇和毛泽东

2017-09-12 08:05:45   IPP

IPP评论是郑永年教授领导的国家高端智库——华南理工大学公共政策研究院(IPP)官方微信平台。

印度一直拿中国当做追赶的目标。莫迪也以印度的“邓小平”自居。

编者按

在刚刚结束的金砖国家会议中,由于中印之前发生的对峙,民间对于莫迪领导下的印度的关注远超其它国家,成为了大家目光的焦点。我们今天再次跟郑老师一起聊聊莫迪与他领导下的印度,听听郑老师解读中印经济更多是竞争还是共赢,以及中国应该怎样和这一个经济的追赶者相处。

01,印度的买办商业文化

正角评论:金砖国家中,印度一直拿中国当做追赶的目标。莫迪也以印度的“邓小平”自居。很多对经济发展比较关注的国人就提出了一个非常有意思问题。当初中国改革开放,在亚洲的“老师”其实是日本。我们用十年左右的时间完成了进口替代,把这些日本工业品牌几乎全数斩落马下,并进一步在海外市场上攻城掠地,把日本以电器为代表的工业产品国际市场份额也几乎抢到了手中。这对于日本来说,是典型的教会了徒弟,饿死了师傅。

那么印度现在以中国为老师,开始了印度的“改革开放”。我们会不会也像日本一样,最后教了徒弟,饿了师傅呢?

郑永年:这是一个宏大的话题。这次中印对峙危机也给我们一个机会去了解印度。之前,我们从来就没有正视过印度,总是把印度看成是落后的象征。这种现象再也不能持续下去了。在我们的改革开放之前,美国和很多西方国家也是这样看待中国的。当时,他们很多看不起中国。当时的中国在西方看来是在太落后了 ,以至于很多人同情中国。但万万没有想到,在短短数十年时间里,中国崛起成为世界大国。今天,西方人体会到了中国崛起的影响力,但很多人仍然不知道中国是如何崛起的。我希望,中国不会犯同样的错误。

就印度来说,首先我们要具体地看印度与中国的相似与不同。我们先抛开莫迪的改革,看中印两国的文化在这个问题上分别会起到什么作用。中国的商品最终会如洪水般席卷国际市场并不是一个“意外”。这个最终趋势在改革开放之初就被很多国际一流的企业家洞察了。例如,有“经营之神”美誉的日本传奇企业家松下信之助在改革开放之初访问中国时,发现中国的普通员工工资很低,同时极具生产主动性,热衷于通过劳动摆脱贫困,当时就预言了中国制造的时代会到来。80年代中国劳工工资只有数十元一月,到了90年代初也仅为数百人民币范围。

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