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原标题:岛内猜下一个“断交”是谁?舆论嫌数字太保守
记者崔明轩
西非国家圣多美和普林西比(简称圣普)总理帕特里斯·特罗瓦达22日表示,由于中国大陆是重要的战略伙伴,加上必须改善人民的生活,与台湾“断交”是最正确的决定。他否认有关向台湾要钱的报道。圣普显然只是多米诺骨牌的第一张,在台湾仅剩的21个“友邦”中,谁会是下一个呢?
台“邦交国”数目上次最低点在1979年前后,台圣“断交”追平史上最低纪录。台“外交部”资料显示,目前台湾“邦交国”有21个,包括亚太地区的基里巴斯、马绍尔群岛、瑙鲁共和国、帕劳、所罗门群岛和图瓦卢;非洲的布基纳法索、斯威士兰;拉丁美洲及加勒比海地区的伯利兹、多米尼加、萨尔瓦多、危地马拉、海地、洪都拉斯、尼加拉瓜、巴拿马、巴拉圭、圣卢西亚、圣基茨和尼维斯、圣文森特和格林纳丁斯;欧洲唯一“友邦”梵蒂冈。
据台湾《中国时报》22日报道,台“外交部次长”侯清山坦言,“友邦”中还有一国“可算是黄灯”,但不方便透露是哪一个,外传是蔡英文明年1月即将到访的多米尼加。但“外交官员”认为,说只有一个国家“亮黄灯”实在保守。他以巴拿马为例说,巴拿马早就想与大陆建交,2010年大陆外长访问哥斯达黎加时,巴拿马总统曾派密使赴哥国与之会晤,当时就已提出建交要求。时任巴拿马副总统兼外长的密使,正是现任总统巴雷拉。但当时因为两岸有“外交休兵”的共识,北京婉拒了巴拿马。另外在马英九执政后期,洪都拉斯和萨尔瓦多都曾向北京表达建交意愿。其中洪都拉斯对台湾更是“红灯频亮”,今年10月该国总统应邀访台,却提前在“双十节”前离境,被认为是“向北京表态”。《中国时报》还提到,大陆深耕非洲多年,去年南非第二届“中非合作论坛”峰会受到全世界关注;与大陆没有邦交的斯威士兰和布基纳法索都派代表当观察员,并通过莫桑比克拉近关系,大陆2012年起更是成为布基纳法索的第二大出口目的地。
联合新闻网22日注意到,罗马天主教教廷20日发布新闻稿,表示期待大陆对本国天主教徒释出正面信息,“在圣多美和普林西比与台断交后,梵蒂冈对北京的态度备受关注”。台湾前“外交部长”胡志强表示,蔡英文当局上台后,最可能“断交”的两个国家是巴拿马和梵蒂冈,圣普顶多排第三位,“没想到圣国抢了头牌,这种骨牌式断交值得注意”。台湾大陆地区商校学生协会理事长陈建仲22日撰文称,台湾在非洲“友邦”如今只剩两个,对比大陆近年来对非洲的庞大建设以及国营企业投资所形成的独占影响力,“我仅有的非洲友邦很可能不保”。加上教皇多次表达希望访问中国大陆,“一旦中梵建交,对台湾在中南美洲的其他天主教邦交国将形成巨大压力,包括萨尔瓦多、洪都拉斯、多米尼加、巴拉圭等,情势都不乐观”。陈建仲还注意到,针对台湾散布在南太平洋的“邦交国”,北京通过“中国与南太平洋岛国经济发展论坛”耕耘多年;反观台湾和这些地区的“邦交”维系几乎完全仰赖援助,“一旦大陆下重手,要保住我在该区的6个邦交国将十分艰难”。
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