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美媒文章:美极度缺乏新一代“中国通”

2018-05-31 15:04:59   参考消息

原标题:美媒文章:美极度缺乏新一代“中国通

参考消息网5月31日报道 美国外交学者网站5月29日刊载题为《中国问题“专家”和美中关系》的文章称,现在是美国政府做更多工作以鼓励新一代中国通成长的时候了。在应对世界上最重要和最复杂的双边关系时,美国需要真正的专业知识和洞见。大声嚷嚷以博取关注的伪专家只会增加噪音,并让决策者和普通读者更难以就中国和中美关系得出明智结论。

作者在文章中称,70多年来,他一直观察着美中关系,在这期间,他会见了数十位专家并同他们进行互动。这些专家有美国人,也有中国人。他们致力于研究和分析美中关系。作者说还会见了许多政策制定者或为决策者提供顾问服务的人。

作者在文章中认为,大部分时候,在历届(美国)政府中,他相当清楚谁是专家以及谁实际上在影响着决策者。然而,今天,顾问和决策者之间的界限日益模糊。到处都是自称专家的人。

文章称,随着本领域有越来越多的智库和研究机构竞争知名度,每天似乎都有新的首字母缩略词表要学习。漫不经心的美中关系观察家如何知道要相信谁的评论和分析?众多言论中有哪些真的具有影响力和意义?

文章称,有些写时事评论的记者只在中国停留了一星期,然后就好像非常了解中国了。看起来,每一个有笔、观点和听众的人突然就变成世界上最复杂的双边关系的专家了。

文章称,如果观察一下美国的决策者,真正中国问题专家的缺乏甚至更加明显。在目前的美国政府中,谁真的对中国有着深刻了解?虽然一些白宫顾问对中国有着明确的看法,但他们的立场不见得建立在有关中国的深刻认识或有关中国和中国领导人将如何行动的真正洞见之上。老的“中国通”——即随着传教士父母在中国长大的人、对中国研究了数十年的人或在亚洲度过了整个外交职业生涯的人——要么老了,要么已经过世。这个空缺却没有可靠的新一代中国通来填补。

文章认为,有越来越多的中国官员在研究美国,他们甚至在美国的学校从事研究。对中国官员来说,对美国、它的政治体系和各种动机的广泛了解是可贵的技能。然而,美国政府在组建它的领导团队时对中国的强调却少得多。看看白宫对华政策和有关中国的言论多么混乱和不连贯,你就明白了。无论美国承认与否或者是否做好准备,中国是一个正在崛起的有影响力的国家。美国不能、也不应该忽视它。美国应该确保有专家来从事有关中国的合理决策并进行有关中国的分析。在有着中国这样一个大国的世界上,美国政府还应该把制定一个架构更清晰、范围更广泛的行动计划作为当务之急。

文章称,美国不能指望继续依赖老一代中国通。这不是一个选项。美国应该培养新的专家,并把积累美中关系方面的研究和经验作为政府优先考虑的事务。

文章认为,现在是美国政府做更多工作以鼓励新一代“中国通”成长的时候了。在应对世界上最重要和最复杂的双边关系时,美国需要真正的专业知识和洞见。大声嚷嚷以博取关注的伪专家只会增加噪音,并让决策者和普通读者更难以就中国和中美关系得出明智结论。


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