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印媒评述:印度外交转向追求硬实力

2018-05-29 10:24:03   参考消息

原标题:印媒评述:印度外交转向追求硬实力

参考消息网5月28日报道 《印度教徒报》网站5月23日刊载印度尼赫鲁大学国际问题研究学院国际政治、组织和裁军中心副教授哈皮蒙·雅各布题为《软实力的吸引力日益减弱》的文章称,近期的战略决策表明印度的外交政策出现了后范式转变。它对权力和影响力的追求似乎超过了该国传统的行为规范和原则性立场。这一转变是否会对印度的国家利益产生负面影响还没有定论。

采用现实主义外交

文章称,大约3个月前,印度中央政府直截了当地告诉最高法院:“我们不希望印度成为难民首都。”边境安全部队甚至一直在东部边境地区阻止罗兴亚难民进入印度。

文章称,印度对罗兴亚危机的处理办法是出于现实政治的考量,与它向该地区无家可归者提供庇护的悠久传统形成了鲜明对比。再来看一个例子。通过高调庆祝与以色列的合作关系,印度政府已明确表示它奉行的是现实政治指导下的外交政策。从意识形态上的反对者到秘密维持关系,印度和以色列在双边关系问题上取得了很大进展。

文章认为,印以关系背后的确存在重要的逻辑依据,尤其是在国家安全和战略考虑方面。

逐步放弃不结盟政策

文章称,不结盟一度是印度外交政策的基石,苏联解体后新德里仍在口头上支持这一政策。2016年,印度总理第二次缺席不结盟运动峰会,与其他发展中国家的团结对新德里来说不再是外交政策的重点。

文章称,通过将印度列为“重要防务伙伴”,美国成为印度最亲密的战略伙伴之一。2016年,印美签署了《后勤交流备忘录协定》,使双方都可以使用指定的军事设施进行加油和补给。显然,这对美国来说远比对印度有益。目前还有几项协议正在商谈中。2014年,美国取代俄罗斯成为印度最大的防务供应国,俄罗斯同年开始与巴基斯坦进行军售谈判。正是在这种背景下,莫迪在索契与俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京的“非正式会晤”被视为双方试图让对方相信,两国关系并未降温。

文章认为,南亚区域合作联盟(SAARC)似乎被委婉地扔进了历史的垃圾箱,出于某种原因,新德里认为它没有未来。讽刺的是,作为以印度为中心的机构,南亚区域合作联盟和不结盟运动一直被我们自身意识努力的排挤。“邻国优先”的理念在瓦解,而且多边联盟越来越像是一种幻想:印度的“后范式外交”政策一片混乱。

“后范式”应与软实力共存

文章称,超出规范约束的思维既有积极的一面,也有消极的一面。当摆脱意识形态的束缚和历史困境时,各国可以自由地追求自身利益。印度的对外行为采取“后范式”做法也是对当代国际体系中追求权力重要性的承认。从这个意义上讲,印度新的外交政策考量有一些好处。

文章称,“后范式转变”也伴随着挑战和复杂因素。首先,一个国家软实力的效用是其政治理念、文明价值观和文化共鸣的产物。只关注硬实力为外交政策成果服务的做法低估了我们丰富的软实力属性。其次,印度新的外交政策选择表明它寻求硬实力、大国地位以及与大国为伍,而不是一个公平的国际秩序以及与发展中国家为伍。但我们当前的大国伙伴关系有多坚定?他们是否能够超越印度不断增加的国防预算和不断扩大的消费市场所具有的吸引力,经受住时间的考验?

文章认为,“后范式”的印度也是咄咄逼人的印度,它对武力的依赖似乎有强大的国内政治根源,它的前提是武力能够战胜抵抗的错误想法。对抗似乎取代了平静的外交,成为我们青睐的冲突解决工具。然而追求国家利益是一件复杂的事情,行为规范、价值观和软实力应该与追求硬实力共存,这将对我们自己有好处。

责任编辑:CN001
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