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全球国债规模创新高:国家债务多高才算“高”

2018-05-18 15:00:34   新京报

犀赵牛渚

债务规模处在高位与债务危机是两码事。国家的债务多高才算“高”?答案是,看信誉。

近日,IMF(国际货币基金组织)发布了最新一期《财政监测报告》,关注全球政府债务膨胀所带来的风险。

IMF的数据显示,全球国债规模已处于历史高位。平均而言,目前,发达经济体的债务已达到了GDP的106%,这是二战以来的最高水平。在新兴市场和中等收入经济体,债务与GDP之比平均达到50%,达到了20世纪80年代债务危机时的水平。

IMF的警告有没有道理呢?当然有,因为政府债务水平太高肯定不利于长期的增长,它限制了国家投资于基础设施、教育和医疗等对增长至关重要领域的投资能力。

但也可以说,没道理。因为债务多高才算“高”?这很难说清楚。欧盟在《马斯特里赫特条约》里规定政府债务比重不能超过GDP的60%,但日本已经达到了240%,能不能说日本到了债务危机的边缘呢?

债务似乎总是给人一种负面的感觉。其实,债务,特别是国债,是人类历史上非常重要的制度创新。

在16世纪,奥地利的哈布斯堡皇帝为了筹集对法战争的资金,利用其领地荷兰联邦的议会的信用来为其发行债券。原因很简单,皇帝信用不高,自己借钱支付的利息太重。在债权人看来,皇帝和国王总有一天会去世,老国王的债务是否会得到新国王的承认也不确定。而议会是永久性机构,其信用度要高于国王。

哈布斯堡皇帝为了长期以低息筹集巨额资金,将用于偿还本息的税收权交给了荷兰议会。1542年又将设立新税种以及决定财政支出的权限交给了议会。荷兰联邦议会以未来的税收收入为保证金,以市场交易的方式发行债券,供投资者自由购买。这就是最初的国债。

哈布斯堡皇帝在无意中进行了一次制度创新,把皇帝的“私人债务”转换为面向市场发行的“公共债务”。在1688年英国“光荣革命”后,来自荷兰的威廉继承了英国的王位,威廉把这套制度带入了英国。

英国将其发扬光大,但它的宿敌法国却一次次遭受财政危机的困扰。在1789年法国大革命前,由于法国国王经常违约,投资人对法国国王的债务要求较高利息。18世纪后半叶,英国国债的平均利率为3.7%,而法国信用最好的也达到了6.1%。

战争的背后是财政。高利率意味着法国在战争中付出更高的财政成本。由于英国的良好信誉,在拿破仑战争期间,法国大量的资金反而流入交战国英国手里。

所以,拿破仑在滑铁卢战役的失败并非偶然。相比法国,市场更加相信英国能赢得战争。

国家间的竞争在很大程度上体现为对国际资本的竞争,哪个国家能够大规模、低成本、可持续地吸引到新鲜资本,哪个国家就会获取竞争优势。高效的国债制度是一个国家融资能力的体现,是决定着国家兴衰的重要因素。

说到底,债务规模处在高位跟债务危机,仍是两码事。会否有危机,还得看债务是不是真的高。

回到开头那个问题,国家的债务多高才算“高”?答案是,看信誉。

□赵柯(中共中央党校国际战略研究院副教授)

责任编辑:CN012
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