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李显龙“突然访华”,中新重拾乐观

2017-09-19 11:16:03   环球时报

新加坡总理李显龙今天起正式访问中国。这次访问本月15日才公布,舆论颇感突然,因此也猜测纷纷。

分析人士都注意到,这是李显龙最近3年以来第一次正式访华,而2016年以来,两国经历了彼此关系最糟糕的时期。新加坡在南海仲裁案问题上公开站在了美日的立场上,成为东盟内唯一高调宣称南海仲裁做出了“强而有力的定义”,呼吁各方“接受仲裁结果”的国家。另外,新加坡加强了与美国的军事联系,它在战略上被很多评论认为“倒向了美国”。

而这次李显龙“无预先征兆的”访华被广泛猜测为新加坡想要调整对华姿态,修补其在中美之间已经百孔千疮的平衡。

奉行在中美之间的平衡是李光耀的主要政治遗产之一。尽管新加坡在政治和安全上长期更依赖美国,但它在经济上与中国越走越近,而且尽量在中国面前淡化自己美国盟友的身份。新加坡的这一战略定位在过去的两年里岌岌可危。

对传统战略的偏离受到一些批评,比如认为新加坡没有守好“小国外交的本分”,过于执拗于自己的价值观选择等等。去年底以来出现了新加坡装甲车在台湾参加演习后被香港扣押事件,另外李显龙疑似未获邀请而缺席了北京的“一带一路”峰会。作为“一带一路”项目,马六甲地区的马来西亚皇京港深水码头建设也启动了,这一切似乎都触动了新加坡。

李显龙和新加坡高官围绕中国的谈话最近几个月越来越积极,但我们不能轻易断言李政府已下决心大幅调整外交战略,其去年南海仲裁之后的那种倾向从此销声匿迹。

其实中国不应寄希望于短时间内将新加坡彻底“拉过来”,新加坡未来很长时间里在政治和安全上仍会主要依靠美国,它的美国盟友身份不会变。但是只要新加坡光接受美国的保护,做美国在马六甲地区一般意义上的、温和的前哨,不帮美国在东盟内部给中国捣乱,中国就有必要包容它,发展同它的友好合作。

新加坡虽然国小人少,但它在东盟的影响很大,常被视为是东盟中的重要声音。客观说,良好的中新关系不是北京对新加坡的屈就,而是对双方都有利的。

北京的杠杆当然要多得多,过去两年它们当中的一部分发挥了作用,让新加坡印象深刻。但是展示那些杠杆并非对北京是很有趣的一件事,以讲规矩为基础恢复与新加坡的友好合作关系更符合中国利益,中国的外交风范中没有“记仇”那一项。

新加坡曾被印尼前总统哈比比称为一个“小红点”,新加坡人自己也这样说,以表达他们永远摆脱不了的安全危机感。相信新加坡没有挑战中国这个巨人的意愿,他们就是纠结于种种现实的和想象的风险,李光耀通过左右逢源将那些风险管控得比较自如,而李显龙政府做得蹩脚些,从有中美两个朋友险些变成选边站。

重新尽量往中美中间靠看来是新加坡新的外交构思,但新加坡对“平衡”的理解仍未必与其他东盟国家一样。中国已经表达了自己的底线,与此同时我们也有宽厚豁达的一面。新加坡是有自己骄傲、也值得尊敬的小国,它在中国几十年的改革开放中总体上扮演了积极正面的角色,这两年虽有波折,但今后两国关系的大趋势仍足以令人乐观。

责任编辑:陈倩 CN030
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