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半岛极端游戏会变假成真为战争吗

2017-08-11 13:48:31   环球时报

美国与朝鲜的相互威胁进一步升级。美国媒体透露用B-1B战略轰炸机打击朝鲜约20个导弹发射基地和支援设施的计划,美防长马蒂斯称,朝鲜若发动战争,将面临政权垮台和人民毁灭。朝鲜则公布了用4枚火星-12导弹齐射距关岛30至40公里海域的初步作战方案,并称将在8月中旬完成对方案的拟定。

美朝如此具体地秀打击对方的作战计划,堪称前所未有。美国关岛已经有一部分人显出恐慌,这也至少是冷战结束以来首次出现的。

那么战争真会爆发吗?很多人基于理性分析,认为这种可能性依然不大。因为如果战争打响,美国在战略上很难有什么收获,而朝鲜的风险将是空前的。朝鲜的目标应仍是迫使美方与其认真谈判,美国则想“镇住”朝鲜。由于双方都难实现自己的目标,于是就把威胁往极端推,但它们应该都不愿主动跨过最后一步。

真正的危险是,美朝这种无规则、相互逞强的游戏会走到临界点时还停不下来,从而使双方的底线越挨越近,产生一系列误判,导致战略性“走火”。换句话说,如果战争爆发,很可能不是美朝任何一方真想打,而是没把弄好从来没有人玩过的极端游戏,搞砸了,变假成真。

今后一段时间,美国B-1B战机再出现在朝鲜半岛上空,朝鲜再朝关岛方向试射导弹,都将高度敏感。美朝对对方此类行动的戒备都将升至最高级。在受到孤立和制裁、有些寂寞的朝鲜,这种游戏或许不乏刺激的一面。而在经济高度倚赖信心的美国,这种事会带来什么后果就很难说了。朝鲜可能也是看准了美国的这一弱点,决心“闹死”美国。

半岛局势的不确定性显然上升了。北京无力在这个时候规劝华盛顿和平壤,我们需要做的是保持好自己的威严,让各方都清楚中方的立场,使它们了解在它们的行动危及中国利益时,中国不会是它们可以借助的杠杆,而只会是墙。

中国应当明确,如果朝鲜主动发射威胁美国领土的导弹,并招来报复,中方将保持中立。

我们还应明确,如果美韩同盟发动军事打击,试图颠覆朝鲜政权,改变朝鲜半岛的政治版图,中国将坚决出手阻止。

中国的半岛政策既反核,也反战反乱,我们不会鼓励任何一方挑起军事冲突,也会坚决抵制任何一方试图在中国利益关切的周边地区强行改变现状。中国还会加强与俄罗斯协调立场,把反核、反战反乱作为中俄的共同战略意志来推行。要让其他各方相信,当半岛局势的升级威胁到中俄国家安全时,这两个大国不会袖手旁观。

希望美朝都保持克制,朝鲜半岛是各方战略利益拥挤叠加的地方,谁都不应任性而为,试图做局势的绝对主导者。在崇尚“进攻是最好的防守”时,也请记住中国的一句俗话:退一步海阔天空。

这是个你强硬、对方比你还强硬的时代,当强硬与强硬互不相让时,请美朝都带着最后的敬畏面对公理吧。

责任编辑:陈倩 CN030
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