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韩国想在萨德问题上“中美逢源”

2017-06-08 13:40:20   环球时报

据韩联社报道,韩国总统府青瓦台7日表示,应“暂停”部署“萨德”,同时确认了将对“萨德”部署展开全面环境评价。青瓦台亦重点强调,目前已部署的两辆“萨德”发射车和其他设施不会撤离,只是秘密入韩的四辆发射车是否部署,需要等待环评结果。

就在上个星期,文在寅向美方承诺不会取消部署“萨德”,青瓦台的最新宣布看不出与上述态度有重大区别,但是文在寅似乎在放慢部署“萨德”的速度,这种“放慢”和“不取消”很像是分别展示给中美两国看的。

俄罗斯总统普京6月1日强硬表示,俄方不会无视美国在韩部署“萨德”,并提出日本所称的“北方四岛”是开展针对性军事部署的理想地点。俄中立场进一步靠近,增加了韩国的压力。

“萨德”是韩国已深陷其中的战略陷阱,文在寅后退可能的确挺难的,美国是部署“萨德”的主导方,前一届政府又制造了生米熟饭的局面,但无论多难,这是韩国内部以及它同美方之间的事情,中俄没有义务为之埋单。

显而易见的是,中方施加的压力已经起了作用,韩方作为一个整体,只顾自己利益而不顾中方战略关切的意志已经动摇了,它现在寄希望于中国顾忌中韩整体关系,最后会咽下“萨德”部署在半岛的苦果。

文在寅在“萨德”问题上比朴槿惠讲理,这个因素对今后中韩关系肯定是利好的。无论最终结果是什么,青瓦台宣布应该暂停部署“萨德”,这一表态都会起到为中韩关系减震和润滑的作用。

然而态度不是一切,“萨德”的实质问题不解决,它钉在中韩关系上所带来的痛苦就消失不了,这种痛苦注定有相当一部分要由韩方分担。

“萨德”问题重伤了中国社会对韩国的友好感情,必将产生长远影响。靠贴一两片止疼膏医治不了这种伤害,韩方为恢复中国市场以往的对韩态度需付出巨大努力,首尔对此应有充分的认识。

中国社会对韩国的失望会在多大程度上转化成中国市场的对韩冷淡,韩方很可能低估了。实际上,如果没有重大转折的推动,“韩流”在中国的衰落已经板上钉钉,很难逆转。中国是大国,“韩流”总体上反映的是小社会的缠绵,它在中国大行其道由特殊的天时地利人和促成,几乎无法复制。因此一段时间中断的后果很可能是致命的。

韩国在华销售的主打产品汽车和手机大概都会风光不再。这段时间给了中国相应产品替代它们的千载难逢机会,这个本来就在酝酿发生的过程被中韩关系冷淡全面触发了,韩国汽车和手机多半将无力回天。

中国方面当然需要就“萨德”问题做最坏准备,那就是一旦“萨德”最终在韩部署到位,中国的军事应对措施必将跟上,中俄的合作应对也应是重要选择之一。此外韩国也必须为此付出代价,这既是中韩之间的事情,也是展示给亚洲看的。

围绕“萨德”问题,中国在战略上不会输。一是我们应当有能力通过军事部署压制“萨德”带来的挑战,二是韩国踩了红线就会有遭电击一般的痛,同中国打交道的这一逻辑被证明真实、有效。大国的麻烦总是一个接着一个,重要的是我们须能够应付它们。

责任编辑:陈倩 CN030
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