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若退出巴黎协定,美国将带坏头

2017-06-01 14:21:09   环球时报

美国总统特朗普北京时间今天上午发推特称,他将在北京时间明天凌晨对外宣布有关《巴黎气候协定》的决定,“让美国再次伟大”。北京时间昨天美国媒体爆出的消息称,特朗普已经决定退出巴黎协定,引爆了国际舆论。白宫发言人斯派塞对这一消息回应说,特朗普总统“想获得一份对美国人民公平的协定”。

尽管特朗普还没有公布他究竟做了什么决定,但严重的不安已在国际社会迅速蔓延开来。联合国秘书长古特雷斯表示,一旦美国政府退出《巴黎气候协定》,他希望美国的各大城市、各大州、各大企业、各大商行应该继续参与联合国主导的这一协定。

几乎所有分析都认为,美国如果退出《巴黎气候协定》,将对该协定的执行造成破坏。鉴于美国是第二大温室气体排放国,以及它特殊的号召力,它那样做不仅会导致减排行动坍塌一角,而且将给世界带个坏头,以后会有一些国家从美国的做法中寻找自己不兑现承诺的借口,这恐怕很难避免。

除了叙利亚和尼加拉瓜,世界所有国家都签署了《巴黎气候协定》,如果美国退出,真就加入了“一小撮”。这样的国家声誉风险对一般国家来说完全是不可承受的,但特朗普政府似乎对此不在乎,或许美国强大的综合力量给了他们这样的任性。

人类依然在政治上四分五裂,联合国权力还很脆弱,这种状态下人类能够面对共同命运千辛万苦谈判出一个有约束力的全球气候协定,它代表了脆弱的、然而难能可贵的积极趋势。一旦美国退出《巴黎气候协定》,是对这一趋势的粗暴冲击,华盛顿所提供的力将是推着世界往回走。

美国已是当代最发达的国家,美国民众从现有国际秩序中享受了远高于世界平均水平的福利。美国内部还有一些穷人和工作不如意者,但这主要是美国内部治理的问题,从外部世界寻找美国“内患”的原因,并且以“挖小煤窑”的方式去世界上能捞一把捞一把,这决非全球第一大经济体该有的表现。

如果美国政府最终决定蛮干,将成为近年来对美国外交资源最严重的一次挥霍。它将向世界清晰无误地证明美国的自私和不负责任,削弱美国人很在意的对世界的领导力。

美国要在世界上发挥领导作用,是有成本的,但那些成本最终都转化成为美国的获得。现在的美国政府似乎希望零付出,获得却源源不断地自动涌来,这违背国际关系的基本逻辑。

特朗普总统和他的执政团队应该深谙这些道理,希望美国退出《巴黎气候协定》只是一场虚惊,特朗普明天凌晨对外宣布的将是一个世人可接受的决定。

责任编辑:陈倩 CN030
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