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俄罗斯在朝核问题上“怼中国”是挑拨离间

2017-04-26 13:58:14   环球时报

在中美增加沟通、中国强化对朝制裁的时候,俄罗斯在故意与朝鲜靠近吗?近日一艘名为“万景峰92”号的大型朝鲜游轮将在下月初抵达俄远东港口符拉迪沃斯托克的消息,似乎成了上述看法的最新佐证。那艘船将载朝鲜代表团参加远东地区5月举行的二战胜利日纪念活动。

这种议论是上周俄罗斯代表就联合国安理会谴责朝鲜发射导弹的媒体声明草案提了一点意见后集中出现的。当时有报道说,俄罗斯抵制了那一声明,但俄方迅速做出澄清,表示自己只是质疑草案中没有写入“通过对话(解决)”,在草案做了相关修改后,俄支持了它的通过。

另外,俄共在杜马的议员以及俄一些左翼力量表示支持朝鲜,认为俄应当对朝鲜在叙利亚和克里米亚等问题上支持俄立场予以回报,这也受到国际舆论的注意。

应当看到,随着中朝围绕核问题的分歧加深和中国对朝制裁的加重,朝鲜很愿意加强同俄罗斯的关系,缓解它因中国制裁受到的损失。莫斯科对平壤的靠近并不讨厌,对与后者的友好交往也不拒绝,这会成为俄朝关系的一个真实侧面。

现在是俄与朝鲜发展关系最容易的时期,这样做可以强化俄在东北亚的存在,增加莫斯科抵制华盛顿压力的筹码,也使俄在朝鲜半岛问题上拥有更多发言权。

不过总的来看,莫斯科对与平壤的接近做得十分谨慎,无论安理会讨论的插曲,还是朝鲜代表团赴俄参加胜利日纪念活动,都没有突破正常范围,更谈不上与安理会的“对抗”。俄罗斯最多是在制造朝鲜可能会成为其一张牌的印象,但它完全没有做出要打这张牌的姿态。

有人怀疑,由于中美最近走近,俄美改善关系告吹,莫斯科很妒忌,因此拿朝鲜问题“给中国使绊”。莫斯科对中美走近有复杂的感受很难避免,但把它的对朝政策与此联系起来,甚至认为莫斯科是专冲北京来的,就是牵强附会的演绎了。即使没有海湖庄园会晤,也没有中美元首最近两次的电话交谈,莫斯科大概也会在俄朝关系上有上述同样的表现。

中俄是坚定的全面战略协作伙伴关系,但两国有各自的利益和行事风格,双方不可能每次都表现得“像一个人似的”,然而两国同样不会是一方在涉及另一方重大利益的领域恶意拆台、挖墙脚的那种关系。中俄对此都有充分的信心和定力。

从朝鲜的角度说,它一直希望制造、利用大国分歧,这是它的一贯策略,但实际效果不断萎缩。中国长期是它的最大贸易伙伴,中国东北地区人口密集且发达,俄远东地区则人烟稀少,中国对朝开展制裁后,后者加强对俄关系是弥补不了损失的。换句话说,俄代替不了中国对朝鲜经济社会发展所发挥过的那些作用。

而且很重要的一点是,俄作为安理会常任理事国,不可能公开违反安理会决议,把中国根据决议中断的那部分关键贸易为朝鲜补上,朝鲜对俄远没有重要到后者可以不惜任何代价向其提供保护的程度。朝鲜半岛问题最重要的是中美这两个最大关切者要扩大共识,在中美都认为应该做的事情上,俄罗斯总的来说会做协同者,而不会展示对立。

北京和莫斯科都应警惕各种挑拨它们之间关系的声音,两国要不断加强沟通,彼此坦诚相待。两国维护好全面战略协作伙伴关系对双方各自来说都事关重大利益,它是不能与任何临时利益做交换的。

责任编辑:陈倩 CN030
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