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杜特尔特南海政策尚未确定 菲不能只靠着南海吃饭

2016-05-11 08:14:29   中国新闻网

【环球时报综合报道】除了担心美菲关系可能生变,美国等一些国家更担忧菲律宾可能退出美日菲组成的“反华铁三角”。“下一任菲律宾总统不应就南海问题直接与中国举行双边谈判”。《纽约时报》9日引述华盛顿战略与国际研究中心东南亚项目主任欧内斯特·鲍尔的话对杜特尔特发出警告。鲍尔称,“如果国际仲裁庭公布南海裁定,而菲律宾新政府却与中国举行双边谈判,就会削弱其他国家诉诸国际法和仲裁的积极性,并将增加南海爆发冲突的可能性。”

“菲律宾新总统亲中吗?”《日本经济新闻》网站10日称,杜特尔特虽然主张强硬政治,并寻求变革受到选民支持,但是他多次发出亲中言论,日本、美国和现任阿基诺政权正在加紧推行的南海安保政策是否能够继续成为未知数。该报另一篇文章称,菲新总统将影响美日等12个国家参加的跨太平洋伙伴关系协定(TPP)的未来。菲现任总统阿基诺竭力想加入TPP。如果拥有超过一亿人口的东南亚新兴市场菲律宾加入,TPP价值将得以提高,“亲美同盟”也将加强。但如果菲律宾推迟加入,将对美国的亚洲战略产生影响。

日本共同社10日称,在官房长官菅义伟当天的记者会上,有记者就杜特尔特表示要与中国展开对话问道,其上台是否会影响日本在南海问题等方面的政策。菅义伟对此表示“不予置评”,仅称“将努力推动与菲律宾新政府的战略伙伴关系”。而日本防卫相中谷元当天称,“希望再次确认合作关系”,他称日本有意在菲律宾新总统就任后,就向菲海军出租日海上自卫队二手教练机“TC-90”等双边防务合作加以确认。

“从杜特尔特最近有关南海问题的表态可以看出,他展示出一些与阿基诺三世对外政策的不同之处,他起码承认争议,表示愿意谈,这表明菲律宾的南海和外交政策确实存在调整的可能。”中国国际问题研究院研究员沈世顺10日接受《环球时报》记者采访时表示,杜特尔特的这种表态,跟菲律宾民众更重视国内事务的呼声有关。由于阿基诺三世紧跟美国,将菲中关系搞成了“全面对抗”的态势,杜特尔特如果想展示与前任的不同,改善对华关系是最容易出成绩的领域之一。

对于杜特尔特先后就南海问题发表过自相矛盾的言论,沈世顺说,这表明他的南海政策还没有完全确定。不过,东盟其他国家都希望菲律宾改善与中国的关系,菲律宾以后或许会向东盟主流靠拢。沈世顺说,“菲律宾不能只靠着南海吃饭,也不能靠南海问题长期操弄国内民族主义情绪,与中国关系搞僵,当然是菲律宾更被动、损失更大。”

责任编辑:翟明 CN040
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