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瞄准A股新机会 私募基金积极布局

2017-11-02 07:00:57   中国经济网

□本报记者 王辉

近期上证指数在3400点一线震荡,个股分化特征明显。展望A股中长期走势,多家今年以来整体投资收益较好的私募机构认为,受益于股票市场制度建设与中国经济基础等基本面支撑,A股市场整体有望延续“指数缓步推涨、优质个股股价持续强势”的慢牛格局。从具体投资机会来看,A股市场在市值、行业等方面的整体运行风格有望逐步趋于均衡。一些基本面较好的中小市值个股与前期市场关注度不高的相对“冷门”行业值得关注和布局。

慢牛走势有支撑

上海朱雀投资创始人、副总经理梁跃军对记者表示,在中国经济创新驱动与转型升级持续深化的背景下,中国股市正在进入一个新时代。未来A股市场整体有望呈现慢牛格局。这种慢牛格局有经济基础和相关基本面支持,并非人为力量推动。去年初以来,A股指数整体涨幅不大、大量个股股价持续走强,就可以理解为慢牛行情的初步演绎。

具体来看,A股市场延续慢牛走势有两大支撑:一是市场制度建设推进,包括退市制度、优化再融资等相关制度;二是随着经济创新驱动与转型升级的推进,很多行业开始涌现大量优秀企业。许多上市公司借助资本市场平台持续发展壮大,不仅在国内出类拔萃,而且具备了在全球范围内的竞争力。随着这批公司的数量越来越多,市值持续缓步上涨,也会带动指数慢慢上涨,给A股市场奠定长期慢牛的基础。

上海联创永泉基金经理杨琪表示,在当前国内经济基本面复苏周期确立的背景下,对于A股市场的中长期走势可保持积极乐观。从大批强势个股过去较长一段时间的走势角度来看,当前A股市场的运行基本可定义为牛市格局。未来较长一段时间内,宏观经济增速仍会大概率向好,优质上市公司业绩增长确定性较高,预计A股主要股指有望延续前期的震荡走强格局。

个股机会或扩散

此前较长的一段时间,市场追捧白马蓝筹股。多家绩优私募机构表示,对于个股机会的继续扩散持乐观预期。

梁跃军表示,从今年A股市场各指数板块的整体走势来看,5月份是分水岭,之前主要是上证50、中证100等成份股领涨,之后投资机会则逐步由“一九”扩散至“二八”、“三七”。整体而言,未来A股市场不会出现“中小市值不能碰、蓝筹板块全面主导”的状况。在有潜力、有希望的行业和领域中,个股投资机会将存在于能成为“未来世界冠军,明日中国之最”的上市公司中。虽然今年以来创业板公司股价持续承压,这对于某些优质个股而言,反而可能孕育一些较好的投资机会。

上海世诚投资总经理陈家琳也表示,A股市场有望继续“稳中有进”,市场在市值、行业等风格方面的差异有望明显收窄。

杨琪表示,今年以来白酒、家电、安防、保险、医药等几个行业牛股频出后,从市场博弈的角度来看,未来一段时间内投资机构应当更加注重全市场均衡配置。

“冷门”行业掘金

在多家私募预期个股机会有望进一步扩散的背景下,今年以来跑输大市的一些“冷门”行业受到关注。

杨琪表示,未来一段时间,将继续围绕行业景气度与估值两个维度选股。在继续看好白马蓝筹的同时,挖掘地产、电子两大行业的优质上市公司投资机会。虽然目前部分投资者和研究机构对于明年的房地产价格与销量预期悲观,但目前房价环比逐步企稳,对地产股有较强的基本面支撑。另一方面,类似智能手机产业链等受益于产业升级的电子行业上市公司未来也有望继续长期展现较好的基本面基础。

梁跃军表示,目前朱雀投资的个股与板块配置重点包括高端装备制造、新兴消费业态、医疗服务、医疗器械、高科技农业等。持续受益于创新驱动、消费升级的优质上市公司未来有望在股价上对基本面有所反映。

上海鼎锋资产看好今年以来整体走势低迷的传媒、油气等行业的龙头公司。上海庐雍资产从行业基本面反转与补涨等角度出发,建议关注太阳能(6.29 +2.95%,诊股)、医药等行业。

业内人士表示,对于今年以来股价显著跑赢大市的白马蓝筹,其关键驱动力在很大程度上仍来自估值偏低的因素。目前创业板以及医药、太阳能、传媒等板块的估值劣势已显著减小。财汇大数据终端的统计数据显示,截至11月1日收盘,创业板全市场的市盈率(TTM)为52.69倍,传媒、医药、太阳能三大行业的市盈率分别为37.24倍、39.46倍和33.81倍。相对于白酒等明星白马板块而言,部分中小市值成长股的估值已不再过于昂贵。投资者结合上市公司流通股主要股东持股变化、公私募机构三季报持股动向等数据,有望在前期机构投资者低配行业中找到新的投资机会。

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