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博时基金魏凤春:A股基本面平稳 注重择时选股

2017-10-17 14:32:54   中国经济网

上周,A股主要指数普遍上涨,中小盘股指涨幅相对较大,其中创业板指、中小板指与深证成指领涨。国际股市普遍上涨,亚洲的日韩印中等股市涨幅居前,欧美发达市场股指微幅上涨。大宗商品方面,美国原油库存超预期下降支撑油价小幅上涨。博时基金魏凤春表示,因预期中国需求向好,基本金属中的铜继续上涨,铝锌小幅调整,而特朗普税改预期升温促使黄金下跌。节后资金面紧张局面逐步缓解,但上周国债期货仍有明显下行,利率债仍受压制,信用债略有上涨。

海外市场显示美国经济向好,信心充足。美国10月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值为101.1,高于预期,创自2004年1月以来新高,并且首次突破100大关。多数美联储官员倾向年末再加息,但这已经被充分预期。日本股市上周五创96年以来新高,显示全球投资者对全球经济持续走好而表示乐观。

国内宏观方面,出口9月水平与过去两月持平,较上个季度有所下降,明显好于2016年。最近三个月的出口水平下降,主要来自非美欧日市场。经过季节调整的社会融资总量环比增速,与8月水平相仿。委托、信贷贷款余额增速有较为明显的回升。9月经济数据进一步走弱的概率并不高,市场对经济需求的预期进一步下调的概率或不大。

魏凤春称,具体来看,A股方面,宏观基本面暂无大的改变,市场风险偏好在国庆节前后保持,从结构看,消费、科技板块正在做调整与轮动,而医药、环保等板块出人意料的反弹,也在打破现在的行情结构。从博弈角度看,市场对指数权重的配置有所下降,更注重择时参与非权重个股。北方“2+26”城市采暖季限产逐渐启动,或对周期有短暂支撑。结构上以金融、消费做基础配置,择机参与周期、科技以及部分滞涨板块的轮动交易。

港股方面,9月中国经济数据向好,支撑港股盈利增长预期,港股估值或仍有优势。在盈利与估值双支撑下,港股短期将维持上涨格局,内地经济改善促使恒生国企指数或有相对收益。

债券市场,国内经济维持景气与周期品价格上行仍是压制,国内10年期国债收益率接近5月高点之后上行空间或有限。央行对部分银行做定向降准,或为债市提供了短暂交易窗口,中短久期利率或信用债相对占优。

魏凤春认为,未来原油市场波动幅度或加剧。随着原油供需基本面出现持续性改善,看好油价中枢缓慢抬升,但考虑到10月进入需求淡季,注意油价短期回调风险。

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