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原油:价格将进一步攀升

2017-10-17 09:27:54   

在OPEC和IEA9月月报均上调2017年全球需求、美国油井活跃钻机增速放缓、土耳其对库尔德过境的管线征收大幅关税等一系列因素的提振下,美原油主力合约8月底以来逐步攀升,9月28日触及52.86美元/桶,创近半年的新高。随着利多效应的消化,油价自高位回落。不过,在飓风Nate登陆及特朗普威胁退出伊朗核协议的影响下,油价再度走高。

墨西哥湾原油供应减少

8月25日,飓风哈维从墨西哥湾登陆。据美国安全和环境执法局(BSEE)公布的数据,当天,墨西哥湾关停原油产量38万桶,占该地总产量的21.55%。

10月7日,飓风Nate从路易斯安娜洲东部和亚拉巴马州西部登陆。BSEE的数据显示,当天,墨西哥湾关停原油产量162万桶,占该地总产量的92.61%。

受飓风Nate影响关停的墨西哥湾原油产量最高为162万桶/日,最多关停298座生产平台和14台活跃钻机,关停规模大于飓风哈维登陆时期。受飓风哈维的影响,9月1日当周,美国原油产量从953万桶/日下降至878.1万桶/日,产量降幅为75万桶/日。故而推断,本周公布的10月13日当周美国原油产量将有更大幅度的下降。此外,飓风Nate仅导致墨西哥湾一座炼厂关停,涉及产能34万桶/日,而飓风哈维影响墨西哥湾10座炼厂的生产。可以说,飓风Nate更多的是影响原油供应端,而对需求端的影响几乎可以忽略。

美国原油出口量增加

由于北海油田的装置三季度进行季节性检修以及美国页岩油产量持续上升,Brent和WTI的原油价差不断扩大,最高超过7美元/桶。二者价差扩大,刺激美国原油出口。EIA公布的数据显示,9月1日,美国原油出口15.3万桶,而到9月29日,出口量增加至198.4万桶,为26年来的新高。在进口量变化不大而出口量增加的情况下,库存也从9月15日4.72832亿桶下降至10月6日4.62216亿桶,连续四周下降。

综上所述,墨西哥湾原油产量急剧下滑、美国净进口量减少,油价转而走高。不过,需要注意,汽油需求回落、页岩油产量进一步增加带来的利空风险。

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