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港股再创十年新高 市场情绪持续活跃

2017-10-17 07:37:54   

10月份以来,港股表现强势,中秋节假期当周,恒指即突破2015年4月高位,并创近十年新高。中资金融股贡献颇多,主要受内地央行定向降准消息提振。上周恒指走势高位整固,期间也曾再次逼近前期高点,技术上略显小双顶形态。对此,市场一度预期港股整固或还需要时间,以消化月初升幅,毕竟内地A股节后反弹力度有限。但是,本周一恒指再次跳空高开,刷新十年高位至28792点,尤其在港交所劲升带动下,蓝筹股几近全线告升,市场投资情绪正面。

消息面上,除外围美股上周继续窄幅向上带来良好气氛外,更重要的是港交所有望建议港府减低甚至取消股票印花税。市场解读此举若落实,有望刺激大市交投,对港交所有正面利好,该股周一盘中最多涨近5%,带动其它金融、地产及科技股亦跟随走高。

港股今年以来已累升近三成,涨幅可谓冠绝全球发达市场。全球经济复苏步伐较稳健,中国经济增长仍居前,刺激资金流入港市意愿浓厚,是推升恒指重心不断上移的重要逻辑。今年以来中国经济增长动能有所回升,上半年GDP增速6.9%,而下半年有望实现7%的增长。此前9月官方制造业PMI升至52.4,扩张步伐继续加速。上周公布9月进出口增速双双回升,周一公布9月通胀数据亦符合预期,均印证着内地经济稳步走强的大趋势,港股市场在内地资金与海外资金联合推升背景下,涨幅自然强大。

从近期板块来看,中资金融股10月以来涨幅居前,以工商银行为例,截至本周一的单月升幅累计逾一成,上周股价随大市整固,但观察北水资金累计净买额仍有约29亿港元。港股通节后重启,上周的日均南下规模超过20亿元人民币,对大市带来不少支持。

另一方面,吉利汽车近期却遭北水资金接连减持,其股价上周曾创27.75港元新高,后主要在高位横盘。北水资金虽套现吉利,但权证资金却收集相关认购证,上周连续五个交易日呈资金净流入,街货亦回升。周一表现强势的香港交易所,盘中最高曾升上230港元,而其股价上周升越224港元后回吐,跌至50天线前有反弹,至上周四及五均跑赢大市。港交所相关权证更提前有所反映,上周持续占据成交榜第二位,比重最高近两成。资金上周主要吸纳其相关认购证建好仓,全周共有3324万港元净流入,为第三大资金参与对象,街货升至约30.1亿份。

纵观“港股通”标的股票近五个交易日市场表现,由于同期港股大市震荡上行,港股通个股也是多数上涨,其中,累计上涨个股达到277只,下跌个股为152只。在强势股方面,科技类个股领涨,瑞声科技、阿里健康涨幅超过5%,权重股腾讯控股上涨近2%;新能源类个股位居涨幅榜前列,保利协鑫能源、北控清洁能源涨幅均超过10%。在弱势股方面,消费品制造类个股相对滞涨,统一企业中国、创维数码逆市下挫5%以上;地产股获利回吐,华南城、国瑞置业、绿地香港、龙湖地产跌幅均在7%以上。在AH比价方面,自9月下旬以来,港股市场表现显著强于内地A股,近五日恒生沪深港通AH股溢价指数累计微跌0.13%,报126.89点。

恒指现已突破2015年高位,站稳二万八千点关口水平,继续向上或可展望2007年牛市的三万点大关。不过,个别蓝筹股的利好消息能一时提振市场情绪,也不能过分解读,港交所提请取消印花税方案料不会太快落实,港股后市还是得回归基本面。而短线来看,本周有较多经济数据将出炉,无论欧美还是中国,数据若有利好表现,港股则压力不大。

(原标题:港股再创十年新高 市场情绪持续活跃)

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