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周四(12日),在美元指数偏弱震荡的背景下,在岸人民币兑美元汇率继续企稳,离岸人民币兑美元汇率则继续跌逾百点。市场人士指出,鉴于美国通胀率长期低迷,已有更多美联储官员质疑12月份是否需要加息,而人民币近期回调后继续下跌空间有限,预计人民币汇率将延续企稳运行态势。
12日,人民币兑美元中间价调升33个基点,报6.5808,创9月20日以来最高,且连续三日调升。即期市场则继续宽幅震荡,其中在岸人民币兑美元汇率早盘小幅调整,盘中随美元指数上下波动,最终16:30报6.5888,较上一交易日跌1个基点;香港市场上人民币总体表现偏弱,截至北京时间12日16:30,离岸人民币兑美元报6.5856元,下跌121基点。
申万宏源证券认为,基于对中美增速差、货币政策周期分化与收敛、中间价形成机制、美元指数的变化趋势及中国国际收支结构性改善等五大驱动人民币汇率因素,人民币汇率在今年年底前仍处于稳中小幅升值的通道,预计人民币兑美元汇率在2017年底小幅升值至6.4左右。
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