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供暖季限产影响供需两端 商品市场新一轮博弈展开

2017-10-11 10:32:54   

随着秋冬治霾进入攻坚阶段,京津冀及周边地区供暖季限产成为近期商品市场的关键词。在业内看来,限产将同时影响供需两端,市场也将为此展开了新一轮博弈。

8月底,环保部等十部委及京津冀等六省市政府联合印发了《京津冀及周边地区2017-2018年秋冬季大气污染综合治理攻坚行动方案》。接着,各地相继推出了细化方案。

记者梳理发现,9月份开始,北方各地相继出台了采暖季限产政策。目前的信息是,除部分重点城市明确钢铁限产50%外,其他城市会根据实际情况实行“一城一策”、“一户一策”,而不是“一刀切”地采用50%的标准。

“截至目前,已经出台具体行动方案的城市中,除石家庄、唐山、邯郸、安阳外,还有5个城市分别明确钢铁产能限产50%。这5个城市分别是天津、淄博、长治、焦作和晋城。”西本新干线高级研究员邱跃成对上证报记者如是表示。

邱跃成指出,目前明确公布限产50%的9个城市中,总炼铁产能2.62亿吨,2017年至2018年采暖季生铁产量将减少2970万吨。此外,按照90%的钢水收得率计算可得出,受影响的粗钢产量约为2670万吨至3150万吨;按照2016年至2017年采暖季2.6亿吨的全国粗钢产量计算,2017年至2018年采暖季粗钢产量减少比例约为10.2%至12.1%。

有色方面,山东省发布的实施细则提出,7个传输通道城市电解铝企业采暖季限产30%以上,以停产电解槽的数量计;氧化铝企业限产30%,以生产线计;炭素企业达不到特别排放限值的,全部停产,达到特别排放限值的,限产50%以上,以生产线计;有色再生行业熔铸工序,采暖季限产50%。

建材行业的供给收缩预期也非常强烈。如玻璃(1358, 14.00, 1.04%)行业,沙河地区玻璃企业将面临整改和采暖季的临时减产。“10月份开始到明年3月15日,沙河地区玻璃现货产量将在现在基础上减产15%。”一位行业知情人士对记者透露。

一些城市采暖季限产目前已经启动。一位知情人士对记者透露,在河北省邯郸武安市,14家钢厂已从10月1日起开始限产50%至55%,时间长达6个月。其他地区基本是从11月15日开始限产。

供暖季限产并不仅仅影响供给端,它引起的需求端变化也牵动着市场神经。

“河北、山东的环保文件均提到了工地在供暖季停工,水泥等建材行业在供暖季全部停工。天津提出全市区内各类建设工程停工6个月,北京提出采暖季4个月六城区停止土石方作业。这意味着北方采暖季限产影响产量的同时,对需求量也会形成明显影响。”邱跃成说。

商品近期的表现反映了市场的这种踌躇心理。全面跟踪国内商品走势的文华商品指数9月份下跌5.07%,文华工业品指数9月下跌了7.02%。节后的两个交易日中,市场仍延续震荡调整行情。10月10日日盘,黑色系商品仍是调整主力,焦炭(1817, -26.00, -1.41%)期货主力合约下跌5.62%,螺纹钢下跌4.82%,玻璃期货主力合约则上涨3.81%。

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