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次新金融股解禁日频频受挫 估值偏高或为“元凶”

2017-09-26 09:37:53   央广网

9月25日,次新股无锡银行遭遇跌停,当天解禁的6.07亿首发限售股似乎是造成股价大跌的重要因素。在此之前,江阴银行、第一创业等次新金融股,也频频在首发解禁当日猛烈下跌。

在次新股密集解禁的浪潮中,为何受伤的总是金融板块次新股,这背后难道仅仅是因为限售股解禁吗?市场人士表示,大额解禁对于市场心理层面的影响固然存在,但这些次新金融股本身偏高的估值或许才是造成股价大跌的真正元凶。

9月25日,无锡银行股价大幅低开后持续低位震荡,午后遭大单封死跌停。临近收盘,即便工商银行等权重银行股出现集体异动,但仍无法撼动无锡银行跌停板上超过10万手的大额封单。截至收盘,无锡银行股价报9.76元,逼近此前9.30元的年内新低。

消息面上,无锡银行9月25日解禁首发原股东限售股份6.07亿股,解禁股数占公司总股本的32.84%,按照上周五收盘价计算,解禁市值高达65.80亿元。

9月4日,江阴银行股价同样大幅低开后弱势震荡,收盘大跌7.31%。同日,江阴银行迎来5.09亿股首发原股东限售股解禁,解禁股数占公司总股本的28.79%。

8月2日,江苏银行也在迎来46亿股巨额解禁的同时,股价大幅低开后收跌1.64%。

更为极端的案例出现在5月份的第一创业。5月11日,第一创业解禁首发原股东限售股份9.80亿股,占公司总股本的44.77%,按当时股价计算对应解禁市值接近200亿元。

第一创业股价自5月11日起收出连续3个“一字跌停”,跌停打开继续震荡走低。在解禁之后的6个交易日内,第一创业股价累计跌幅达到36%。

自新股恢复常态化发行以来,首发限售股解禁在今年以来的市场中几乎每天都有发生,但为何股价受影响比较大的总是金融板块次新股。分析人士表示,金融板块本身所具有的两个特征或许能够解释这一现象。

一方面,相比于其他行业,金融板块个股的总市值规模明显更大,对应的首发解禁规模也更为庞大。江苏银行、第一创业、无锡银行等次新金融股的总市值规模与解禁规模,在所有同期次新股中居前,由此带来的心理冲击自然更为明显。

以解禁当日的收盘价计算,第一创业5月11日解禁市值为180亿元,排在5月份所有解禁次新股首位。江苏银行8月2日解禁市值达到417亿元,高居8月份所有解禁次新股首位。无锡银行、江阴银行、贵阳银行等近期迎来的首发解禁市值也均在50亿元以上。

另一方面,相比其他行业,金融板块的整体估值明显更低。截至9月22日收盘,申万银行与非银金融行业的平均市盈率分别为7.35倍与22.06倍。而次新股在上市之后均受到无差别炒作,导致个股市盈率普遍高于行业平均水平。

那些科技类次新股,基于行业题材的想象空间,或许还能掩盖高企的估值。但对于业务构成更为明晰的金融板块,虚高的股价往往只能带来估值回归。

即便在经历了一个跌停后,无锡银行当前的市盈率仍有20.20倍,明显高于行业均值。在股价虚高的背景下,市场或许只是借用了限售股解禁这一微妙的时间节点,加快了公司估值回归的脚步。记者 费天元

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