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环保强风袭来 钢铁化工等行业再遇严拷

2017-09-25 07:06:53   中国经济网

采暖季限产等环保强风的袭来,让钢铁、化工、水泥、电解铝等多行业再遭严拷。业内人士认为,年末钢市必将又是一场动荡,价格或继续推高。而水泥错峰生产或将导致2017年产量出现负增长,而化工行业呈现两极分化态势,零散的小化工厂、小制品企业数量极多,将是环保督查的重点,这些企业的淘汰出局,从长期来看对整个行业是利好的。

十八大以来,生态文明体制改革被放在全面深化改革工作的突出位置。2015年9月,中共中央和国务院印发《生态文明体制改革总体方案》,“1+N”形式的顶层制度设计开始启动。其后,历次中央深改组会议审议通过了一系列事关生态文明改革的配套政策文件。而今年以来,《京津冀及周边地区2017年大气污染防治工作方案》等环保相关政策更是密集出台,同时中央环保督查实现31个省区市全覆盖,推动解决了一大批突出环境问题。

在此之下,地方也动了起来。钢铁大省河北省提出,保定、廊坊、张家口将打造“无钢市”,张家口基本实现“无矿市”,张家口、廊坊、保定、衡水力争实现“无焦市”。“多项环保政策叠加,钢铁在产企业所剩无几。”金联创金属行业总编易易向《经济参考报》记者介绍说。

然而,环保强风仍在后头。根据《京津冀及周边地区2017年大气污染防治工作方案》,“2+26”城市工业企业采暖季要错峰生产。水泥、铸造行业全面错峰生产,除承担民生任务的,采暖季全部错峰生产。而从9月15日起,环保部对秋冬季京津冀及其周边地区展开大气巡查,这次巡查针对的是参与“2+26”城市秋冬季大气污染治理的企业和政府。

易易认为,年末钢市必将又是一场动荡,价格或继续推高。以螺纹钢价格为例,后期仍将有200-300元/吨的上行空间。但需谨慎追涨。

海通证券分析师姜超称,2016年28个城市产量占全国的1/5,而2017年前7月全国水泥产量同比仅增长0.3%,因而错峰生产或将导致2017年产量出现负增长。

从化工行业来看,金联创能源与化工行业总编王贞贤介绍说,目前我国化工企业呈现两极分化态势。主要的大宗化工品生产集中在三桶油和地炼等大型民企手中,这部分企业配套环保措施普遍比较完善,由于对地方经济影响大、社会影响大,环保督查影响有限。另一方面是零散的小化工厂和小制品企业数量极多,长期缺乏监管,这一部分企业将是环保督查的重点。环保督查对化工企业长期是积极向好的,政策门槛可以将一部分比较低效的小企业淘汰出局。

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