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节后鸡蛋价重心有望上移

2017-09-22 09:57:06   中国经济网

虽然近期养殖户补栏积极性提高,且受厂商节日备货接近尾声影响,近日鸡蛋价格走弱概率较大,但由于前期育雏鸡补栏较低,预计后期全国在产蛋鸡存栏量仍将维持较低水平的情况下,国庆节后蛋价回落空间或有限,鸡蛋价格重心有望上移。

自8月下旬以来,鸡蛋期价在预期和资金的推动下快速回落,而此时鸡蛋现价仍较强,鸡蛋基差持续走扩,截至9月13日基差达到今年以来的最大值307元/吨,但仍处于正常水平(鸡蛋基差正常波动范围-1100—1000元/吨)。随着厂商节日备货的结束,近期鸡蛋现价呈现回落,而期价下跌速度减缓,基差逐渐回落,预计在节日消费周期的效应下,国庆节前鸡蛋现价继续下跌,鸡蛋基差或持续走弱。

基本面上,受蛋鸡养殖利润较好驱使,8月份养殖户补栏积极性提高,育雏鸡补栏量大幅增加。8月份以来,全国主要城市鸡蛋均价在3.5元/斤以上,高价将近4.6元/斤,蛋鸡养殖平均利润在60元/只左右(利润水平较高),较高的养殖利润势必会刺激养殖户补栏积极性,又适逢全国气温逐渐下降,利于蛋鸡养殖。芝华数据显示,8月份全国育雏鸡补栏量为7799万只,环比增加65.9%,同比增加16.19%。

但由于今年5-7月份育雏鸡补栏量较低(累计补栏1.56亿只),这预示着未来一个季度,产蛋鸡新增量将会维持低位,而2016年同期补栏的育雏鸡(累计补栏2.44亿只)将进入淘汰鸡龄。因此,在正常的生产条件下,预计后期全国在产蛋鸡新增量将会小于淘汰量,在产蛋鸡存栏量或维持较低水平。根据前期育雏鸡补栏数据测算,在正常的生产条件下,9—12月的在产蛋鸡存栏量分别为11.11亿只、10.37亿只、10.74亿只和10.48亿只,后期鸡蛋供应稳中趋紧。

此外,中秋、国庆双节临近,厂商节日备货接近尾声,近期鸡蛋消费预计将会下降。Wind数据显示,近期全国主要城市鸡蛋均价呈现回落,截至9月19日,全国主要城市鸡蛋均价较本月上旬高点的4.57元/斤下降0.34元/斤至4.23元/斤。但四季度节假日较多(重阳节、元旦、春节等),且为鸡蛋消费的季节性旺季,预计后期鸡蛋需求下降空间有限,鸡蛋现价维持在3.5元/斤以上的概率较大。

虽然8月份育雏鸡补栏量大幅增加,但其形成有效鸡蛋供给则要在12月份之后。另外,目前蛋价较高、蛋鸡养殖利润较好,养殖户补栏积极性较高,市场预计9月及之后育雏鸡补栏将会较大,但这段时间补栏的蛋鸡要在春节过后才开始产蛋。因此,春节前鸡蛋供给难有大幅增加。若秋冬季育雏鸡补栏量大幅增加,明年上半年蛋价或将承压。

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