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白酒股再度走强 水井坊涨逾5%贵州茅台再破500元

2017-09-18 10:06:43   新华网

今日早盘,白酒股再度走强,截止发稿,水井坊涨5.05%,酒鬼酒涨4.45%,山西汾酒,沱牌舍得,口子窖,泸州老窖,古井贡酒,五粮液,贵州茅台等股涨超2%。贵州茅台股价盘中再次一度突破500元大关,最高至500.5元。

中金公司分析认为,高端酒除茅台外,2018年进入到以销量为主要增长来源的阶段,茅台600元的渠道利差也带来更确定的提价放量预期。茅台近期超预期放量打压零售价格,在1380元团购价基础上,预期2018年小幅提升;那么其他名酒需要进一步通过销量实现业绩增长,变相提价难度加大;次高端龙头通过高端产品参与高端市场竞争,高端酒顺势提价思维不适应大众消费升级的大环境。

次高端市场2021年达到870亿元规模,龙头公司存在较大的全国化份额提升空间,考验企业全国化能力和多产品布局300~1500元市场的能力,洋河股份和水井坊在产品系列、营销组织管理、消费者培育等方面最为领先,投入较大,存在最确定的持续高成长趋势,2018年盈利显著加速增长,带来估值的稳定提升。

区域龙头关注高盈利能力所预期的强产品力和管理竞争力。具备本地市场稳定中高速增长的同时,进一步通过能力复制实现区域扩张。缺乏全国化能力的区域品牌面临的压力将大于机遇,重点看好口子窖和今世缘。

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