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机构看好新兴市场 乐观预计两年内翻番

2017-09-18 07:11:38   中国经济网

27.82%。

截至9月15日,

MSCI新兴市场指数年内涨

27.82%。

同期,上证指数的涨幅为8.05%,恒生指数为26.39%,标普500和纳斯达克的涨幅均不到20%。

全球最大新兴市场基金——领航富时新兴市场ETF和安硕核心MSCI基金双双创出一年来新高,分别上涨26%和30%;新兴市场互联网和电子商务ETF涨幅达到了64%。

中国基金报记者 姚波

黯淡数年的新兴市场今年迎来大爆发,在市场回暖、本地货币升值以及科技股上扬的多重利好刺激下,新兴市场整体表现不仅超过A股、港股,同时也超过了美国等发达市场,相关基金成为最大受益者。

新兴市场今年以来的表现在全球最为出色。截至9月15日,MSCI新兴市场指数今年已经上涨了27.82%,涨幅不仅超过上证指数8.05%和恒生指数26.39%的涨幅,也超过了标普500和纳斯达克的涨幅,两指数今年的涨幅均不到20%。

在基础市场向好的基础上,全球最大的两只新兴市场基金——领航富时新兴市场ETF和安硕核心MSCI双双创出一年来新高,上涨幅度分别达到了26%和30%。不同于以往,今年新兴市场表现最亮眼的行业是科技股,新兴市场互联网和电子商务ETF是其中涨幅最高的行业基金,达到了64%,而基金飙涨最大的贡献来自京东、阿里巴巴等中国公司。

不少投资新兴市场的国别基金也表现不错。MSCI中国指数得益于港股市场以及中概股的上扬,安硕MSCI中国ETF今年上涨了44%,领先于A股、港股和金砖四国;投资巴西市场的安硕MSCI巴西ETF今年上涨了29%,投资印度的的安硕MSCI印度ETF今年的涨幅也有28%。

不仅仅是指数基金,投资新兴市场的对冲基金也同样受益。依据eVestment的数据,截至8月底,今年以来,新兴市场对冲基金收益率达到了14.55%,而投资发达市场的对冲基金仅有5.39%的收益。在8月份,新兴市场对冲基金收益率2.47%,也超过了发达市场0.41%的收益率。

乐观预计两年内翻番

业内人士认为,经济基本面的改善是推动新兴市场上涨的基础。根据统计,新兴市场今年GDP增速平均在4.5%左右,是2015年二季度以来最好的表现,而相比较来看,发达市场同期GDP增速只有2.25%,仅有新兴市场的一半。

同时,还有更多方面的驱动因素在改变着新兴市场的内涵,从而有力地促成了此轮牛市。以前,新兴市场发展的主要基础来自大宗商品等原材料,而现在技术科技股也成为了新兴市场最重要的构成部分,其占比甚至超过了标普500等大指数。新兴市场的经济驱动因素也在发生变化,更多的转向由消费来驱动,而非制造业驱动,新兴市场的生产制造和消费之间的关系也更加均衡。

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