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提价+盈利分化 建材龙头最受益

2017-09-15 08:21:40   新华网

昨日市场震荡回落,房地产、建筑材料等板块异军突起,逆势大放异彩,其背后原因均指向水泥、玻璃等产品的旺季行情。中国建材集团有限公司和中材股份有限公司旗下上市公司宣布停牌,也给予投资者极大的“合并”想象空间。目前业内人士普遍对建材产品四季度整体价格表现持乐观态度,认为上半年高景气将延续。

产品持续提价

8月底9月初,受环保督查影响,部分地区下游需求仍未恢复正常,但因企业生产同时受限,市场供需关系基本保持稳定,在企业开展自律下,水泥价格继续保持上扬态势。上周,北京和河北唐山地区水泥价格推涨30-50元/吨;华东地区继续上调,苏锡常高标号水泥上调30元至280元/吨;安徽沿江芜湖和铜陵上调20元/吨,高标号散到位价330-340元/吨。本周,水泥价格继续上涨,涨价区域主要集中在江苏、上海、云南和贵州,幅度在10-30元/吨,无下跌区域。

兴业证券认为,水泥板块在需求不弱的同时供给方面协同控制效果较好,景气行情延续,盈利水平继续增长。

玻璃方面,8月末全国白玻璃均价为1550元/吨,环比上月涨54元/吨。从8月市场表现看,现货价格上涨动因依旧来自生产企业的主动商行,下游加工企业订单环比增量有限。

进入9月,旺季提价可期。国信证券认为,目前水泥、玻璃等传统建材行业库存情况尚可,在环保严控和行业自律调解下,下半年旺季水泥有望进一步提价,玻璃价格保持高位可期,同时玻璃供给收缩存有超预期可能。另外,作为水泥、玻璃企业盈利先导指标的水泥-煤炭价格差和玻璃-纯碱重油价格差保持相对高位,预示企业盈利有望继续保持较好势头。

今年中报披露期间,有色金属品种是当仁不让的周期领涨龙头,但从财报数据看,建材品种经营业绩同样可圈可点,利润增长是行业主基调。Wind数据显示,2017年上半年建材板块实现营业收入、归母净利润1607亿元和147亿元,同比分别增长31.19%和104.31%,增速较上年同期提高27和112个百分点。其中,龙头企业表现更优,上半年毛利率和净利润分别为31.44%和14.93%。

从已经披露三季报业绩预告的公司看,水泥、玻璃业绩持续改善趋势明显,价格保持高位可期。国信证券分析师分析,在环保严控背景下,供给收缩有超预期可能,水泥、玻璃之外的其他建材依旧分化前行,细分行业优质企业持续稳健增长,盈利保持较好势头,长期看好市占率提升所带来的成长持续性。

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