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如何发现新蓝筹 孙建波:五大领域机遇渐显

2017-09-13 16:11:35   新华网

新华网北京9月13日电(孙恺悦)近期,大宗商品价格呈现明显的上涨趋势。如果说供给侧结构性改革是本次周期股反弹的支撑,那今后大宗商品价格还会有连续上涨的态势吗?这一期《首席来了》邀请到中阅资本总经理、银河证券前首席策略分析师孙建波来为大家做详尽的分析。

孙建波指出,今后要从历史经验中找进一步投资的标底。经济周期并不会因为部分改革以及环保措施,而让优势企业的利润无止境地改善,目前基于环保、行业改善的逻辑,上涨的幅度已足够大,导致商品价格和公司股票产生差异,形成回归周期。

基于稳健是蓝筹类股的基本属性,蓝筹股类公司存在的短期困难是符合预期的。但从长远来看,蓝筹股一定还是服务于经济的主流力量,所以这类公司在随着经济增长的同时,应该回归稳健、有一个稳健的增长。

对于成长类公司,孙建波认为,一定要从中寻找新蓝筹的目标企业。随着时代的变迁,市场需要不断涌现的新技术、新企业,因此在公募基金中,除了需要一些经济支柱型的大企业,还需要在成长类公司寻找未来真正的新蓝筹。

新蓝筹会出现在什么行业?孙建波指出,未来五个领域是新蓝筹的重要标的,包括人工智能和服务机器人、新能源汽车,品牌性的消费品、生物医药和健康以及移动互联领域。前两个归类于科技领域,后面三个则归属于生活领域。孙建波对五个领域进行了详细阐述。

首先是人工智能和服务机器人领域。科技的发展,或者革命性科技发展可以分为三个阶段:一是工业领域广泛应用,二是进入教学阶段,三则是直接进入生活领域。目前,机器人领域完全符合这样一个状态。在过去十年,机器人在工业领域广泛应用,现在已经开始广泛进入教学,最多再过十年,一定会在生活中普及。

其次是新能源汽车领域。从中国工信部紧随欧洲主要国家,制定传统汽油车的销售停止的时间表这点可以确定,新能源汽车必然是未来的发展方向。

第三是品牌性的消费品。中国不仅在城市化,而且城市化的质量在逐步提升。换言之,进城打工还算不上城市化,真正的城市化是融入城市生活方式。这就意味着品牌性的消费品将成为一种常态,也将是未来的一种投资方式。

第四是生物医药和健康领域。一方面,随着物质条件的优化,人们开始追求越来越好的医疗条件,达到延长寿命和年轻化的目的;另外,随着年龄的增长,中老年人去医院的频率开始上升。这些都是使整个社会的医疗开支大幅度上升的重要原因。

最后一个则是移动互联领域。“过去整个互联阶段让我们消费习惯逐渐发生改变,将来还会有新的趋势,是未来投资又一个重点方向。”

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