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苹果魔咒 新品发布会当天概念股下跌概率超8成

2017-09-13 08:41:24   中国经济网

备受关注的苹果10周年发布会于北京时间9月13日凌晨1:00召开,据媒体报道,今年苹果新品预计将汇聚多项重大技术革新以纪念iPhone诞生十周年。除了芯片和系统升级外,iPhone8(X)还可能应用三星OLED材质双曲面屏、双面玻璃机身,3D面部识别、无线充电、屏下指纹、增强防水、增强现实优化的后置相机等多项新型组件。

苹果历来是业界标杆,它的技术变革也可能推动苹果产业链相关企业提振盈利性。受此影响,在二级市场中,以歌尔股份为代表的苹果概念股市场表现也明显跑赢大盘。

多个公司开始在互动平台上表明苹果概念股的身份。奋达科技表示,公司全资子公司富诚达的主要客户为苹果及指定EMS厂商。同兴达表示,公司研发生产全面屏,随着公司实力提升,未来不排除苹果8会选择使用公司的产品。超声电子表示,公司是苹果公司的PCB供应商,但基于商业保密原因,具体合作内容不便透露。

据同花顺数据显示,8月以来,苹果概念指数涨幅高达12.67%,同期相比,上证指数、深证成指涨幅只有3.16%、5.22%。截至2017年6月30日,共有63只基金重仓苹果概念。其中,上投摩根中国优势混合重仓苹果概念占比达32.67%,重仓股为欧菲光(9.74%)、长盈精密(7.65%)、安洁科技(6.08%)、大华股份(5.85%)和科森科技(3.11%),今年以来涨幅达40%。

众所周知,苹果发布会前后,苹果的股价都会有所反应。自首款iPhone问世以来,直到去年,苹果股价有80%概率在iPhone发布日当天收跌。而A股相关的苹果概念股从2014年来的发布会当日也是跌多涨少,下跌概率超过80%,“苹果魔咒”的原因也不难理解,股市一直有炒预期的逻辑,当预期落地利好兑现后,投资者便会获利离场。

华泰证券对此进一步分析,指出发布会前后概念股走势无统一经验规律,但仍呈现一定的联动性:在发布会前一周内,相关标的走势分化,未呈现出太强的联动性;自iPhone5至iPhone6s期间,在新机发布后一周的时间内,相关标的中下跌的数量明显较多。

华西都市报-封面新闻记者白兰

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