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中国经济增长步入“超级城市”时代

2017-09-13 07:51:25   中国经济网

中国经济保持了40年的高速增长,近期开始把注意力转向城市特别是超级大城市发展,以其作为未来经济增长的驱动器。眼下中国学术界就发展超级大城市和推动形成都市圈问题进行了热烈讨论,希望进一步扩大特大城市的经济规模或经济效率提升至更高水平的地方政策受到决策层支持。更有建议认为,应在相邻的经济中心城市之间建立更深度和更紧密网络联系的都市圈。可以期待,假如城市驱动的增长趋势持续10年,中国的城市化水平有望达到全球的平均值。

近年来中国开始流行青睐超级城市和城市圈的这种观念丝毫不奇怪,它跟过去10年来中国试图要升级其增长模式有关。尽管制造业高度发达,但中国的城市化进程一直慢于其工业化和经济发展的速度。尽管中国今日已是世界第二大经济体,但仅有一半的人口是城市居民,而生活在超级大城市的人口不到总人口的十分之一。

中国过去25年的快速工业化进程中,像北京、上海和广州这样的超大城市的角色也并非举足轻重。这在工业化最为迅猛的长江三角洲和珠江三角洲地区极为典型。在这些地区,至少在相当长的一段时间,相对于那些中小城市,大城市被束缚在国有部门的体制之下,在生产性资本的积累、吸引外商直接投资(FDI)落地和本土企业家精神上并无压倒性优势,反而那些中小城市借势而为,一举崛起成为制造业中心。

上世纪90年代之后,苏州昆山迅速崛起,成为了中国最重要的电子产品的制造中心。在广东省内,类似昆山这样的小城市,比如东莞、惠州、中山、顺德,也获得与全球产业链高度融合的制造业崛起机遇,担当着中国作为世界工厂的重要角色。即使今天被认为是中国最具活力的超级大城市之一深圳,也只是伴随其作为出口加工区的工业化进程而逐步演变成今天超大规模,1979年在中央政府批准其成为经济特区的时候还只是个边陲小镇。

过去10年的情况表明,特大城市和城市化滞后的状况正妨碍未来经济增长潜能的释放。在未来的经济增长中,中国清醒地认识到要充分利用和挖掘其人口规模和人力资本积累的无与伦比的巨大优势。在这种情况下,大城市、特别是超级大城市和城市群的崛起至关重要。

固然中国已有常住人口在2000万的北京、上海、广州和深圳这四个超级大城市,它们在中国被称为“一线城市”,但超级城市的数量与中国的经济和人口规模显得不成比例。作为全球人口最多且为第二大经济体,中国的城市化水平依然大大低于世界平均水平。中国还有数个在经济和人口规模上具有演变成为超级大城市潜力的二线城市,如成都、天津、杭州、武汉、苏州等。即便是对北京、上海这样的超级大城市,也并没有足够的理由认为它们目前在经济发展的潜能和容纳的人口数量上已经接近临界值,除非继续保留绵延已久的行政区划限制,以及对城市土地开发比例的严格控制。

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