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重磅政策出台利好农业 “三底”叠加迎建仓良机

2017-09-11 08:27:39   新华网

日前,国务院办公厅印发《关于加快推进农业供给侧结构性改革大力发展粮食产业经济的意见》,明确了大力发展粮食产业经济的总体要求、重点任务和保障措施。

有分析人士表示,农业供给侧结构性改革是中长期内农业投资的最关键变量。农业板块在经历上半年全行业倒数的疲态后或迎来反转。

下半年以来,部分农业股已开始有所表现。《证券日报》市场研究中心根据同花顺数据统计发现,7月份以来,共有47只农业股实现上涨,占可交易农业股比例接近六成。其中,17只个股期间累计涨幅在10%以上,除8月份以来上市次新股中宠股份涨幅明显外,牧原股份(52.13%)、华资实业(49.90%)、通威股份(38.53%)、天山生物(33.13%)、雪榕生物(32.67%)等个股期间累计涨幅也均在30%以上。

资金流向方面,7月份以来,华英农业、东方海洋、正虹科技、正邦科技、佩蒂股份、中宠股份等6只个股期间累计大单资金净流入均在1亿元以上,分别为:37485.30万元、37330.60万元、33567.90万元、26462.69万元、19268.34万元、12371.47万元,上述6只个股期间合计大单资金净流入达16.65亿元。

业绩方面,截至目前,已有33家农业上市公司已披露三季报业绩预告,其中,20家公司业绩预喜,占比60.61%。具体来看,獐子岛、东方海洋等2家公司三季报预增幅度均在100%以上,天山生物也有望实现三季报业绩扭亏为盈。

海通证券指出,估值底+配置底+周期底,农业关注度提升。年初以来农业股跌幅较大,估值中枢下移。目前公募基金对农业股无论绝对配置比例或相对配置比例都已达到5年低位。展望下半年,尽管尚未看到农产品价格大幅上涨的迹象,但的确某些农产品的供需基本面迎来实质性改善。建议投资者关注的品种主要有玉米、橡胶、禽类等。

太平洋证券也表示,部分优质白马股估值处于历史底部,后市有望迎来估值修复的投资机会。隆平高科内生增长强劲,外延扩展有力,业绩处于上升期,且估值处于底部,至少有20%以上的上涨空间;登海种业优势品种表现良好,研发优势突出,业绩有望触底,且对应最近12个月业绩的市盈率仅为29倍,近5年中枢是33倍,估值有10%以上的修复空间;中牧股份口蹄疫苗等上市后增长明显,业绩触底上升,有管理层激励计划出台的强烈预期,对应最近12个月业绩的市盈率仅为26倍,近5年中枢是34倍,估值有20%以上的修复空间。

数据显示,最近1个月内,有11只农业股机构给予“买入”或“增持”等看好评级家数均在10家以上,海大集团最受青睐,机构看好评级家数达到21家,隆平高科和生物股份则均有16家机构给予看好评级,其他机构看好评级家数在10家以上的农业股还有:通威股份、大北农、温氏股份、登海种业、中牧股份、百洋股份、西王食品、普莱柯。

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