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杨德龙:好股票要用业绩证明 别再幻想“乌鸡变凤凰”

2017-09-09 16:51:40   中国经济网

经济日报-中国经济网北京9月9日讯(记者 关婧)证券日报与中国经济网联合举办的“七问中国股市”论坛今日举行,论坛邀请了七名专家学者,就IPO制度和退市制度常态化、完善并购重组市场、壮大长期资金规模、提高新三板市场流动性、机构投资者责任等问题进行了深入探讨。

前海开源基金董事总经理、首席经济学家杨德龙在论坛上表示,完善退市制度是推动资本市场健康发展重要举措,随着退市上市公司数量的明显增加,体现了近年来管理层通过完善退市制度、推动A股市场发展的决心。杨德龙指出,今年退市公司的数量明显增加,正在改变过去A股市场“炒差、炒新、炒小”的习惯。

前海开源基金董事总经理、首席经济学家杨德龙发言。中国经济网张相成/摄

杨德龙指出,由于A股采取的是IPO核准制,因此上市公司保壳的动力非常强,这导致自1999年以来A股只有61家公司因经营不善或欺诈而退市,退市率不到2%。而成熟的发达资本市场,“美国纳斯达克退市比率是8%,纽交所的退市比率6%, 英国AIM市场(Alternative Investment Market,高增长市场)达到了12%。退市方面,A股退市的数量是远远低于海外市场的。”

由于退市制度在实际操作中的复杂性,导致A股“乌鸡变凤凰”事件时有发生。杨德龙认为,一些ST公司通过重组或借壳,股价一飞冲天,导致A股市场“炒差、炒小和炒新”之风盛行,不利于价值投资理念的树立。特别是借壳和重组中的知情人由于信息优势,为获利而进行内幕交易,严重损害中小投资者的利益。

不过近年来退市制度的完善正成为监管层工作的重点,并且今年退市公司的数量明显增加,退市节奏明显加快。杨德龙认为,“要想改变A股市场现在存在的问题和弊端,就要完善退市制度,这是保证A股市场健康发展的重要的一个方面,它和新股发行制度是同样重要的基础性的制度。”

杨德龙指出,目前A股市场围绕着价值股来展开,白马股、龙头股的股价已经创新高,一些绩差股还在创新低,说明A股有可能呈现出港股化、美股化的特征,即蓝筹股享受估值议价,绩差股折价。

“国内投资者不要再幻想发生乌鸡变凤凰的事情,真正好的股票是要用业绩来证明的。业绩为王不光是今年的投资理念,也是未来的投资理念。只有这样才能让投资者在A股市场利于不败之地,A股市场才能真正成为经济的晴雨表。”杨德龙说到。

在谈到目前A股市场的投资思路时,杨德龙认为市场底部正逐步抬高,慢牛行情的看法正在被大多数市场参与者接受,其中有三类领域存在较大的投资机会。“第一个是消费升级的机会,例如高端白酒、旅游领域,其次是高科技股有比较大的挖掘机会。第三是在供给侧结构性改革之后,传统周期股盈利能力改善带来的投资机会。”

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