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谨慎情绪升温 资金加速净流出

2017-09-08 08:27:40   中国经济网

受权重股连续回调拖累,沪综指本周三触及3391点后,市场风险偏好显露降温迹象,资金参与题材炒作兴趣也较为寡淡。指数高位之上,获利盘回吐情绪伴随谨慎情绪的升温加速宣泄,统计显示,昨日两市共有逾300亿元资金出逃,规模接近前一日的2倍。操作上,建议投资者近期控制仓位,适度参与板块轮动中超跌股和防御性白马品种的投资。

逾300亿资金净流出

昨日沪综指低开低走,失守10日均线,收盘报3365.50点;创业板指冲高回落,午后加速跳水,退至1900点下方。大小盘双双疲弱,刺激资金谨慎情绪发作,全天市场呈现较为明显的获利出逃现象。

截至昨日收盘,沪深两市共计出现309.94亿元资金净流出,创下8月上旬以来最高纪录。环比来看,场内资金正加速撤离,昨日市场净流出金额几乎逼近前一日155.49亿元的2倍。

创业板午后大幅跳水显著施压资金情绪,导致尾盘阶段有14.39亿元资金净流出,一举扭转9月以来尾盘净流入的资金逻辑。由此,昨日全天从创业板净流出的资金达到57.58亿元,为前一日水平的21.89倍。此外,昨日沪深300指数和中小板净流出规模分别为102.20亿元和67.46亿元,环比双双大幅增长。

具体来看,大单和超大单是昨日两市资金出逃的重灾区,金额分别达到137.09亿元和172.85亿元,分别为前一日的1.41倍和2.94倍。与之相对,中单和小单仍保持净流入,并且本周持续维持净流入格局,显示中小投资者仍是当前市场做多主力。

不过从主力净流出额占比来看,中小创股票昨日杀跌幅度更大。全部A股中,昨日该指标排位前十的个股中,除秦港股份和三孚股份外,其余8只皆为中小板和创业板股票,且以次新股居多,这或意味着接下来次新股行情暂告段落。

周期行业现分化

从盘面看,随着场内多头无心恋战,谨慎心态转浓,昨日共有24个申万一级行业出现下跌,钢铁、有色金属、采掘指数跌幅最大,为1.86%、1.66%和1.51%,全天跑输大盘的板块有12个。房地产、建筑材料、综合、医药生物板块是仅有的上涨板块,昨日涨幅分别为2.16%、0.26%、0.17%和0.06%。

与行业指数表现大体一致,资金流向上,昨日共有26个行业出现净流出,有色金属、计算机、电子板块规模靠前,为62.75亿元、39.17亿元和34.24亿元;房地产和医药生物两个板块获得资金净流入,金额为29.06亿元和2.76亿元。这一方面表明,昨日市场热点相对集中,资金更倾向于博弈强势股,尤其午后开始,阳光城、万科A等加速上涨;另一方面也显示,对于资源股后期走势,当前投资者仍存在较大分歧,导致昨日此类品种资金表现差异较大。

在并无超预期利空因素爆发的情况下,昨日市场普跌折射几大信号:一是连续站上高位后,近期资金做多动能开始边际衰弱,叠加派发情绪发酵,指数攻关3400点之前还需要休整蓄势;二是近期市场超买迹象严重,而从昨日主要技术指标看,超买指标均出现回调,短期市场技术修正需求开启;三是相比本周前半段金融股和周期股交替轮涨,昨日周期板块走势分化,同时金融板块内部也出现上涨的无序化,表明在3400点关前,市场尚未就新的做多方向达成一致。综合来看,短期市场还将在震荡中继续消化上涨压力,建议投资者注意规避调整风险。

横向看,当前除金融和地产股尚且具备估值修复需求,场内估值洼地已经基本被填平。在短线调整风险汇聚、突破时点延后的节点上,分析人士建议投资者切莫盲目追涨杀跌,不妨以静制动,适时锁定利润调低仓位,逢低布局遭到错杀的超跌品种。此外,具备估值优势和成长潜力的防御性白马股也值得中期布局。

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