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玻璃 贸易商采购意愿减弱

2017-09-07 09:51:58   中国经济网

目前玻璃市场尚处于旺季中,而随着旺季结束,东北将率先进入淡季,从而压制华北价格,玻璃现货将明显承压。

东北库存累积明显 华北补库结束

近期处于玻璃需求旺季,但东北玻璃的库存下降速度缓慢。从价差来看,北京和沈阳的价差处于高位,华北现货继续大幅上涨。11月以后,随着北方大幅度降温,东北玻璃将加速流转至华北、华东等地,东北玻璃现货价格将持续走弱。

同时,近期沙河现货连续上涨,导致贸易商囤货意愿较强。8月1—17日,河北玻璃厂库存大量转移到贸易商手中,河北玻璃厂库存下降。但随着下游补库基本结束,玻璃厂出库放缓,从8月17日开始,玻璃厂库存累积,贸易商继续大幅采购意愿减弱。

供应稳定 未来需求将持续走弱

近期纯碱和燃料价格大幅上涨,虽然部分压缩了玻璃厂的利润,但其依旧维持在150—200元/吨。因此,在当前利润水平下,玻璃厂整体大范围检修的可能性较低。

同时,房地产行业对玻璃的需求也处于下行趋势中。自2016年4月开始,商品房销售面积累计增速同比持续走弱,7月新开工和竣工面积累计增速同比出现回落。目前看,后期商品房销售走弱的趋势还会持续。而且,房地产投资完成额累计增速同比已经拐头向下。因此,房地产投资走弱,会抑制玻璃的需求。

图为浮法玻璃的表观消费(单位:万重量箱)

从表观消费来看,8月玻璃消费同比增长-4.7%,1—8月累计同比增长2.31%。可以看出,今年旺季需求不及预期。此外,随着供暖季到来,北方部分城市房屋施工受到限制,10月以后北方需求会持续走弱。

总之,玻璃1801合约短期振荡,后期走弱概率加大。

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