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国家统计局:我国债务风险总体可控

2017-09-06 18:51:35   新华网

新华社北京9月6日电 国家统计局有关负责人6日介绍,近年来我国经济保持总体平稳、稳中向好的发展态势,防范和化解债务风险的能力不断提高。我国债务风险总体可控,债务压力趋于减轻。

这位负责人介绍,据有关机构测算,2016年末我国宏观杠杆率达到250%左右,与国际主要经济体相比,我国杠杆率处于中等水平。尽管与2008年国际金融危机前相比我国债务水平有所上升,但债务风险总体可控。首先,我国居民和政府部门的杠杆率较低。2016年末,居民部门杠杆率在50%以下,政府部门杠杆率在40%以下,远低于世界公认的警戒线。地方政府的负债率虽然高于中央政府,但举债日益规范,债务主要用于搞建设而不是搞福利,而且相当一部分债务已经形成了优质的资产,很多资产在运营过程中可以带来稳定的现金流,具有较强的偿债能力。其次,我国的债务主要由内债组成,非金融企业外债余额占比仅为4%左右,出现债务风险的可能性较小。再次,我国总储蓄率接近50%,庞大而稳定的储蓄资金为企业债务融资提供了强大支撑。此外,在长期的经济管理实践中,政府积累了丰富的应对危机的经验。

这位负责人说,我国债务水平上升主要是由于非金融企业尤其是国有企业杠杆率相对较高,这与我国资本市场发展不成熟,以银行为主的融资结构占主导等因素紧密相关。随着供给侧结构性改革深入推进,市场供求关系明显改善,企业利润显著增加,债务压力趋于下降。根据国际清算银行(BIS)数据,2016年末,我国非金融企业杠杆率为166.3%,连续两个季度环比下降或持平,这是非金融企业杠杆率连续19个季度上升后首次改变;我国信贷/GDP缺口比2016年一季度末降低4.2个百分点,连续3个季度下降,表明潜在债务压力趋于减轻。

这位负责人还表示,我国经济有望继续保持中高速增长,财政收入和企业利润也将相应保持增长,这将为债务偿还提供重要支撑,有助于在中长期形成较强的债务风险防控能力。同时,随着我国资本市场不断完善,企业直接融资渠道进一步拓宽,地方政府债务融资更加规范,我国债务风险隐患问题将得到有效预防和化解。

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