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华创证券:十大视角解读A股2017年半年报

2017-09-06 08:37:36   新华网

各板块单季归母净利增速

各板块单季营收增速

制造业板块存货周转率单季同比增速

制造业板块投资现金流净流出

制造业板块投资现金流净额同比增速

资料来源: Wind,华创证券研究所

目前A股上市的25家银行的不良贷款率自去年二季度以来稳中趋降,这反映了商业银行资产质量下行压力基本得到了遏制,潜在风险有下降趋势。2017年上半年,商业银行贷款损失准备金余额较年初增长2307亿元达28983亿元,贷款损失准备金余额增速继续明显高于不良贷款增速,导致拨备覆盖率的增高。上市银行2017年一季度的拨备覆盖率为204.80%,较去年同期高15.46个百分点。当前商业银行拨备覆盖率高于监管要求的150%,商业银行风险抵补能力处于较为合理的区间,风险抵补能力仍处于稳健水平。

制造业上游投资意愿增强,中下游边际走弱。制造业上游投资现金流净流出同比增速稳步上升,中游和下游投资现金流净流出均处历史高位,而同比增速呈趋缓态势,企业投资意愿边际减弱。盈利情况的分化致使处于产业链上不同环节的企业采取了不同的投资计划,制造业上游企业投资支出的增加一定程度上对冲了中下游企业谨慎的投资决策,使得整体投资温和回落。

整体盈利回落,中小板业绩存亮点。2017年二季度A股整体归母净利增速为13.24%(一季度增速为19.88%),处于2010年以来的中位水平;剔除金融股后,归母净利同比增速达22.59%(一季度增速为48.66%)。A股整体营收增速自2015年三季度触底后持续回升,于2017年一季度到达阶段性顶部的21.02%,二季度略有回落,降至18.8%。

中小板归母净利增速也出现下滑,下降6个百分点至20.84%,降幅在各大板块中最小。此外,中小板营收增速也是各大板块中唯一继续回升的,上升至28.78%(一季度增速为24.08%),创2011年以来新高。创业板业绩持续回落,归母净利增速延续2016年以来的下降趋势,降至2.13%的低位。创业板营收增速回落2.5个百分点至32.26%的水平,但仍处历史高位区间。整体来看,二季度各板块业绩均有所回落,中小板业绩存在亮点,其营收增速继续趋势回升,与创业板增速差缩窄。

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