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有色金属站上了风口 小金属配置价值显现

2017-09-01 08:16:44   中国经济网

周四,受累于银行板块的回落,市场出现了缩量整固态势。而行业板块中,却呈现涨多跌少格局,热点也并不缺乏。其中有色金属行业板块涨幅居前,是唯一一个涨幅超过1%的申万一级行业板块,并带动了部分人气。而针对近期有色金属行业的上涨,分析人士表示,受益于供给侧改革的刺激,有色金属行业在价格和盈利上均出现较大幅度改善,因此近期该板块备受市场瞩目,由于业绩向好后市料该板块仍有上行动能。

相关股票表现活跃

昨日,申万一级行业板块中有色金属板块涨幅榜首。回顾今年以来的表现,有色金属板块已累计上涨25.70%,仅次于同为周期性行业的钢铁,位居涨幅榜第二,可谓是今年以来市场上无可争辩“大赢家”之一。

昨日,申万一级行业有色金属的114只个股中,四只个股涨停,分别是鹏欣资源、深圳新星、翔鹭钨业和寒锐钴业,洛阳钼业、索通发展和中孚实业三只个股的涨幅也均超5%。如果在行业内进行细分,小金属概念的表现则更为“亮眼”。昨日,在概念板块中小金属板块的涨幅位列180个概念中的第三,仅次于次新股和打板概念。

近期,有色金属板块屡屡展现行情。从此前有色板块的上行逻辑来看,其动能主要来自供给侧结构性改革对有色金属行业产能的去化。一方面,从昨日公布的8月官方制造业PMI超预期达到51.7来看,该数据已连续13个月维持在50枯荣线上方,说明宏观经济仍处于扩张期。另一方面,近期有色期货的价格升幅也比较明显,一定程度上显示出现货端的需求较为旺盛。分析人士表示,由于市场下游消费持续优于预期,有色金属行业整体的盈利也出现了较大幅度的改善,这是近期板块整体上涨的最大支撑。

针对有色金属板块后市整体的投资机会,中信证券表示,首先,在板块中该机构最为看好的是新能源板块的投资机会。其次,由于供需的持续修复,建议投资者可对修复确定性最强的铜、锌板块予以关注。最后,随着固体废物进口政策拐点来临,可适当关注有望赚取稳定价差、具有境外废旧金属拆解和处理能力的企业。总体来看,对于有色金属行业来说,“涨价”仍是短期市场的核心逻辑。

小金属长期价值显现

在有色金属板块整体表现亮眼的同时,板块中小金属概念屡屡“逞威”,展现出大行情。昨日以钴、锂等为代表的小金属概念股就出现了大幅上涨。分析人士指出,具有广阔运用前景的小金属即将经历自然周期下的供需调节,在此背景下,相关上市公司盈利有望出现改善,具备长期关注价值。

海通证券表示,锂、钴等小金属即将迎来供给淡季。从锂的情况来看,由于碳酸锂上游产能在短时间内难以大量释放,当前厂家的心态普遍看涨,由于青海、西藏气温将出现下降,该机构预计锂产业供给端即将受到气候影响出现紧缩。而钴同样也将受到气候及政治因素影响,迎来供给淡季。由于刚果(金)控制全球60%产量,因此集中的供给端导致金融属性极强。该机构预计,从10月开始,为期半年的非洲雨季将对钴矿的采集及运输造成影响,从而进一步刺激钴价上行。

中金公司指出,在新能源汽车行业高增长背景下,钴需求具备持续增长空间,钴价具备支撑。“打黑”及环保督查有望维持较大的力度,对稀土供应继续产生影响。稀土在尾气净化和废气治理等领域能发挥重要功能(如氧化镧及氧化铈),在新能源汽车行业维持高增长背景下,需求具备增长潜力。因此,从中长期来看,稀土行业基本面仍有进一步改善的空间。

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