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保险上市公司中报何以超预期?

2017-08-31 20:21:02   中国经济网

经济日报-中国经济网北京8月31日讯 (记者 江帆) 截止8月30日,四家A股上市保险公司2017年中报全部亮相,特别是中国平安、中国人寿、中国太保,其中报业绩被投资界称为:远超市场预期。

回顾今年上半年,以上证50指数成份股为代表的蓝筹股曾经走出过一波亮丽的行情,其中保险四大上市公司表现尤为抢眼。据万德数据统计,截止8月30日,按申万三级行业分类的保险板块半年涨幅高达51.62%,位居A股市场所有板块涨幅第三位。而同是金融三驾马车的银行和证券行业,半年涨幅仅10.55%和3.61%,分别位列第28和第45位。

保险股行情为何如此火爆?答案就在今年的中报数据中。

不断增厚的公司价值

今年保险类上市公司的中报无疑给市场带来了惊喜。最先披露中报的中国平安,实现营业收入4637.65亿元,同比增加23.1%;实现归属母公司净利润 434.27 亿元,同比增加6.5%,集团期末内含价值为 7391.44 亿元,较上年末增加15.9%;中国人寿紧跟其后推出了同样抢眼的中报业绩,实现营业收入 4014.24 亿元,同比增长 17.8%;实现归属于上市公司股东净利润 122.42 亿元,同比增长17.8%;第三家中国太保上半年实现净利润 65.09 亿元,同比增长 6%,期末归属于公司股东的净资产为 1315.14 亿元,加回分红实际净资产上升 4.6%,内含价值 2714.54 亿元,较年初增长 10.4%。新业务价值 197.46 亿元,同比增长 59%,集团投资总投资收益率 4.7%,净值增长率 4.5%;

只有最后发布中报的新华保险从数据上看似乎有些例外,中报显示实现营业收入 770.70 亿元,同比减少 11.9%;实现归属于母公司股东的净利润 32.37 亿元,同比减少 2.9%;内含价值 1420.89 亿元,较 2016年 12 月 31 日增长了 9.76%。

不过这在投资业内人士看来并无重大影响。“上半年净利润下滑,下半年预计情况有所改观。利润的下滑是由于:一、负债端由于 750 日国债收益率曲线下降造成准备金补提;二、资产端投资收益率为 4.9%,同比减少 0.4%。我们预计从 2018 年开始,准备金会陆续释放,对公司净利润构成利好。”山西证券分析师刘丽如是表示。而西南证券的分析师郎达群则给新华保险下了“中报符合预期,笃定价值转型”的评语。

升级版业务结构优化

今年保险中报除数据整体向好外,一个突出特色是保险业务结构的优化升级进一步明显,这集中体现在新业务价值方面,包括期缴和首年期缴的提升、银保产品保障期限的拉长、有效人力的显著提升等。比如中国平安,上半年新业务价值率达 34.4%,渠道首年期缴保费同比增长49.6%;中国人寿的情况大体相似。首年期交产品贡献保费收入 777.11 亿元,同比增长 10.8%;续期保费收入1805.0 亿元,同比增长 39.0%,在总保费中的占比达到 52.2%,同比提高7.8 个百分点。个险渠道季均有效人力较 2016 年底增长 39.4%。

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