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IF、IC空方优势扩大

2017-08-31 09:49:55   中国经济网

本周市场维持振荡偏强走势,周一涨幅较大,周二和周三都以振荡为主。周三市场分化加剧,IF和IH冲高回落,IC振荡收涨,具体表现为收盘沪深300、上证50和中证500指数涨跌幅分别为-0.01%、-0.40%和0.71%。对应期指当月合约涨跌幅分别为-0.09%、-0.58%和0.69%。当月合约升贴水分别为-0.1点、3.4点和-19.9点。三大期指基差都略微走弱,IF和IH升水减弱明显,IC变动不是很大。

周二市场调整中,三大期指全线减仓,但是周三资金迅速回补。周三IF和IH持仓增加489手和582手,加仓力度较大。IC持仓增加254手,资金略显谨慎。从效果看,加仓却蕴含了不一样的多空力量博弈方向。从分时图看,加仓都出现在午后,但午后的走势方向却有差异,IF和IH振荡下行,IC振荡上扬,说明IF和IH短线空方主导力量有所增强,IC多方主动力量增强。市场短期热点转移到中小创的可能性较大。

统计中金所前20席位数据,IF净空从2184手扩大到2269手,IH净空从552手缩小到491手,IC净空从1297手扩大到1496手。单独分析净持仓数据变化,显示IF和IC空方优势扩大,但IH的空方优势下降。

分析主力席位,导致IF和IC空方优势扩大主要是多头减仓力度较大所致。数据显示,IF多头减仓106手,空头减仓12手。IC多头减仓154手,空头增仓1手。多头连续两天获利了结,IC短线承压。IH呈现多头增仓173手,空头增仓79手,IH的多头较为顽强。从三大期指的前20具体席位持仓变动看,增仓减仓超过100手的席位寥寥无几,说明短线资金还是存在一定观望情绪。

综合分析,期指总持仓全线增加,IC收涨说明热点转换。不过,从净持仓和主力席位变动看,没有太明显的多头资金介入,IC能否独立走强仍需观察。

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