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汽油涨价“独角戏”:“飓风营救”缘何厚此薄彼

2017-08-29 09:16:29   新华网

美国炼油产业的心脏地区——墨西哥湾地区正遭受2005年以来最强大的“怪兽级”飓风肆虐。

上周四中午官方数据显示,美国已有近10%的南部墨西哥湾离岸原油开采产能,以及15%的天然气生产暂停或被关闭,德州原油产销运全面受到影响。

短期产量干扰一度令上周五汽油价格涨至四个月新高,本周一汽油期货仍延续强势。相较而言,原油期货近期却横盘整理。

“飓风对炼油行业和港口的威胁相比对石油或天然气产量的影响更大。”分析人士提醒,美湾石油行业经过多次飓风的“洗礼”,其应对能力已大幅提高,大部分石油设施的关停是有预防性质的,要关注其是否会对市场产生更多的脉冲性影响。

炼油产区“飓风”肆虐

8月25日,飓风“哈维”(Harvey)以130英里的时速登陆美国得州沿岸地区,这是美国自2005年以来最强大的“怪兽级”飓风,数十万民众被迫避难。

飓风带来的短期产量干扰,一度令RBOB9月汽油价格在上周五亚盘时段上涨4.6%至1.7406美元/加仑的四个月新高。不过,周五美股交易时段,即月汽油价格重新回落,甚至完全抹去了前一交易日“飓风危机”下的涨幅。

据有关消息,一夜肆虐之后,四级飓风“哈维”26日减弱为热带风暴。不过美国国家飓风中心警告,飓风中心的破坏力才刚要开始,包括德州休斯顿在内的多个沿岸城市,接下来几天都会出现大雨,降雨量可能超过40英寸。

据华泰期货介绍,飓风席卷的地区提炼量约达500万桶,波及的产能高达226万桶/日,埃克森、Citigo、Flint Hills、瓦莱罗、壳牌以及菲利普66纷纷关停涉及炼厂,部分宣布不可抗力,同时,马拉松石油炼厂由于天气以及洪涝原因降低了炼厂加工负荷。

美国安全与环保署的数据显示,工作人员从105座海上生产平台上撤离,导致墨西哥湾地区38万桶/日的产能关停。据彭博统计,Eagle Ford盆地关停产能在30—50万桶之间,“哈维”总体影响了美湾地区近100万桶/日的原油产量。

原油运输方面,14艘油轮将近700万桶的进口原油出现滞港,不能在德州码头卸货,目前Corpus Chirsti港处于关闭状态(去年其进口量达到22万桶/日);Freeport港口在8月24日起已处于关闭状态并至少持续4天,去年原油进口量为13万桶/日;休斯顿港已暂停所有船只接卸,其去年进口量高达57万桶/日;Sabine Pass港口也暂停使用,Brownsville港口周六重启。此外,Kinder Morgan宣布关闭部分受影响管道,如south Taxes管道,BNSF宣布由于洪涝,其装卸工作将延迟24—36小时,科洛尼尔管道称目前暂未受到影响。

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