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沪指站上3300点 量能不足有效性待观察

2017-08-28 07:21:58   中国经济网

每经记者 郑步春

上周五A股大涨,沪综指涨1.83%至3331.52点,一举突破3300点大关。此外,深主板、中小板、创业板三综指均涨1%左右。当天几乎所有板块都在上涨,同花顺数据显示,煤炭开采板块当天以4.11%的涨幅领涨,板块内无一个股下跌;仅酒店及餐饮板块微跌0.33%。

目前大盘上攻形态较好,但成交量有所欠缺。股市在成交量不是很大的情况下拿下了重要阻力位3300点,这表明市场抛压不如想象般猛烈。

我觉得抛压不重可能与以下因素相关:一是3300点已磨了许久,套牢盘已被消化了不少;二是部分机构可能“预感”到了IPO不会提速。往常每到周五,炒作次新股的资金就会变得谨慎起来,这回却有些异常。上周五次新股强得有些出人意料,同花顺“新股与次新股”板块大涨了2.96%。

大家知道,近期次新股涨势是很好的,一般人在此情况下都会担心IPO提速,更何况次新股中的标杆——中科信息已经停牌了。在这样的背景下,次新股还能大涨,这实在是让人有些惊讶。

近日,证监会主席刘士余表示,将加快中央监控系统建设,加强对跨境、跨交易所、跨账户异常交易的监测,使所有的违规交易都无处可藏。今后证监会将以更大力度支持境内外交易所拓展机构互设、人员培训、互联互通等方面的务实合作,为全球资本市场稳定繁荣注入新动力。

这些信息值得投资者仔细研读。个人认为,这或许预示着A股国际化将提速。实际上,A股国际化已比较紧迫了,因人民币正迅速国际化。资金出海多了,自然就得同步拓展资金流入渠道,如此才能实现动态平衡。按照这个逻辑,债市、股市等加大开放力度都是顺理成章的。

我对上周五的A股大涨没有多少预期,我承认自己看错了,当时我曾经怀疑大盘会有可能跌到3260点或更低。不过,我对后市仍较谨慎,由经验来看,股指冲过某一重要位置后,无论向上还是向下,经常会有个拉回过程,其后就得看能否“二次突破”了。如果能二次突破,那么才能确认为“有效”。

本周投资者自然就得观察这个突破是否有效了。我建议仓轻者最好先看看,不必急着买入。对于仓重者,我倒是觉得可以先考虑逢高抛售一部分筹码。

笔者已在微信平台开辟专栏,读者可以在每周日至周四晚间通过微信直接查看笔者的最新观点,详情请关注“每经投资宝”微信公众号。

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