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白电数据超预期 家电行业抗跌性强

2017-08-25 08:33:08   新华网

昨日,A股市场进入全面回调之中,市场热点大面积回落。不过,29个中信以及行业中,家电板块上涨0.45%,位居涨幅榜首,成为仅有的两个收红行业之一,位居涨幅榜首。近日发布的7月份空调数据超预期,显示出补库存持续性将超预期,对行业龙头形成支撑。短线白电、小家电等业绩优良的品种是良好的“避风港”。

白电板块表现突出

二级行业来看,白色家电板块上涨0.81%,而黑色家电、小家电、照明设备及其他三个二级行业则均小幅下跌,分别下跌0.86%、0.46%、0.56%。

个股来看,59只正常交易的家电行业成分股中,仅有15只个股实现上涨。其中,浙江美大、建海环境和欧普照明的涨幅居前,分别上涨5.52%、3.15%和2.89%;老板电器、小天鹅A的涨幅也均超过2%。相对而言,三星新材、珈伟股份、天银机电等个股跌幅均超过3%。

从资金流向来看,美的集团、格力电器分别获得2.07亿元和1.44亿元的资金净流入,位居前列,显示出资金短线重新关注家电白马股。

沪深港通数据显示,8月24日沪股通净买入7.12亿元,深股通净买入5.29亿元,金额较本周前几日均明显好转。实际上,本周沪股通合计净买入额仅为1.97亿元,可见昨日的净买入扭转了前期的累计净卖出格局。本周深股通合计净买入11.35亿元,昨日的净买入也占据了大比例。

而沪深港通的布局中,白马股也是重点。8月24日的净买入排行榜上,美的集团的买入金额最高,为3.07亿元;中国联通、海康威视、伊利股份和上汽集团的净买入额均超过亿元。格力电器昨日则净卖出0.32亿元。

补库存将延续

除了本身业绩的稳定增长外,白点龙头诸如美的、格力和海尔7月空调内销情况良好。消息面上,据产业在线数据,2017年7月空调行业销量为1396万台,同比增长52.4%;其中出口365万台,同比增长15.2%;内销1031万台,同比增长72%。其中,格力电器销售410万台,同比增长41.4%;其中内销同比增长50%。美的集团销量为346万台,同比增长117.6%;其中内销240万台,同比增长192.7%。青岛海尔销量为115万台,同比增长58.6%;其中内销同比增长58.5%。

申万宏源证券指出,上半年空调的高增速主要来自于同期低基数和地产滞后效应,天气炎热也带来需求提升。进入8月,上述因素的影响将逐步减弱,8月空调内销增速将进入换挡期。不过目前格力、美的渠道库存处于历史较低水平,主要系终端零售高景气度消化出货端的高增速,经销商仍有补库存的需求,因此预计2017年三季度内销同比增速仍将优于往年,全年空调行业内销增速超40%将是大概率事件,因此继续推荐在产业链中议价能力强的空调龙头。

招商证券指出,由于真实终端需求的持续超预期,渠道库存处于历史同期较低水平,补库存事实上已经被延后。这也预示着本轮空调的景气将可能较市场预期更为持久,预计龙头企业的空调内销有望在2017年至2018年两年实现50%-60%的累计增长。地产下行预期、原材料价格上行、人民币升值等阻碍家电股价上行通道,但具有优质资产与核心定价权的企业,是周期穿越的最佳伴侣。(记者 张怡)

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