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概念股冲高回落 养老金选股料趋稳健

2017-08-25 07:36:21   中国经济网

上周,养老保险基金“现身”A股上市公司正海磁材和九阳股份之后,引发市场热捧,然而随着相关概念股冲高回落,市场情绪渐趋理性。分析人士指出,养老金买入相关股票应该有自身的逻辑和理由,加上建仓时间较早、建仓成本低,对普通中小投资者可能没有多大借鉴意义。

“大部队”在后头

自上周末养老金以“基本养老保险基金八零二组合”首次亮相A股上市公司十大流动股榜单以来,正海磁材(300224)和九阳股份(002242)赚足了眼球,交易量明显放大。九阳股份随后强势突破年内高点后回落,经过两日调整,截至昨日收盘累计上涨5.63%,仍在年线之上。

截至昨日,正海磁材和九阳股份的流通市值分别为87.48亿元和147.9亿元,养老金“八零二组合”分别持股392.92万股和286.7万股,位列第九和第十大股东。以最新收盘价计算,养老金对上述两家公司的持股市值均在5000万左右,持股比例分别为0.47%和0.37%,并非重仓持股,养老金“大头”尚未现身。除了投资上市公司股票,今年以来包括“八零二组合”在内的多个养老金组合还大量参与新股和可转债的网下配售,统计数据显示,这些养老金组合累计网下配售累计动用资金399亿元。

北京、上海、安徽等8省区市早在6月底便与社保基金会签署了委托投资合同,合同总金额4100亿元。人力资源和社会保障部政策研究司副司长卢爱红在7月曾表示,已有1721.5亿元养老金到位并开始投资,剩余其他资金将按照合同约定分年分批到位。可以预见,养老金入市“大部队”还在后头。

养老金选股逻辑难借鉴

养老金入市酝酿已久,甫一出场即受到市场热烈追捧,上证综指一度做出冲击3300点的架势。更有乐观观点认为,养老金入市A股有望开启市场牛市行情。按照《基本养老保险基金投资管理办法》的规定,投资股票、股票基金、混合基金、股票型养老金产品的比例,合计不得高于养老金资产净值的30%。而从资金安全的角度来看,结合当前社保、保险等资金的投资数额,实际比例甚至更小,基本控制在10%左右。

中国养老金融50人论坛核心成员董登新认为,今年养老金可供入市的规模很小,仅仅一两百亿的体量对A股市场影响不大,大盘走势更多取决于上市公司的基本面以及货币政策等因素。另外,从上市公司的2017中报来看,养老金买入的两只个股半年报业绩均乏善可陈。九阳股份净利润同比微降0.69%,而正海磁材净利润则显示亏损1497万元。养老金买入相关股票应该有自身的逻辑和理由,加上建仓时间较早、建仓成本低,对普通中小投资者可能没有多大借鉴意义。

业内人士认为,养老金入市短期内带来的直接利好有限,对市场走势的影响不宜过分夸大,但我们不能忽视养老金入市的长远意义。

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