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结构性机会依然较多

2017-08-25 07:28:28   中国经济网

■情绪监测

■广州万隆

24日大盘指数震荡休整,成交量继续萎缩。交投情绪并不强,资金主要炒作ST板块及次新股等为主。

好股道决策快线情绪指数目前读数值为21,处于低位区。结合情绪指数已经从8月17日高位回落,并且近期股指以区间震荡为主的这种情况分析,这意味着目前市场信心已经相对缺乏。从反身性的角度来看,当市场信心不足的情况下,也就意味着股指已经处于阶段性非理性下跌状态(风险释放尾声)。情绪指数回落至低位区时,投资者可以逐步关注即将到来的布局机会。

近期行情一直维持较低迷成交状态,但行情结构性机会却相当明显。因此,事实上投资者已经形成较为一致的预期,即资金面对行情虽然有制约作用,但整体行情风险并不大。从行为心理分析的角度来看,支撑投资者信心预期的因素主要是不断的热点切换。从机构投资者偏好的漂亮50,到供给侧改革的权重周期股,再到当前的混合所有制改革带来的机会等。可以说,近期行情是得到中国经济改革与转型的大背景支撑的。

改革实质性推进为市场带来投资机会。但另一方面,我们看到当前资金对行情的炒作是相对较为理性的。这种理性主要是基于政策面的引导。我们认为,过度炒作必然会导致行情出现大起大落,这对金融市场稳定运行是有冲击的。反之,这更有利于行情保持平稳运行。

整体上来看,行情平稳运行的情况下,结构性机会仍是较为充裕的。而成交量能不足,可能会挤压部分谨慎类投资者离场观望,对行情的短期冲击反而能为投资者带来逢低介入的机会。

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