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星展银行:下半年投资股债要加强风险管理
2017-08-25 07:17:14 中国经济网
日前,星展银行财富管理部北亚区投资总监李振豪在接受《经济参考报》等媒体采访时表示,下半年投资美、欧股市要以防范金融风险作为主旋律,投资者需要在股债之间合理平衡投资组合。
美国股市方面,李振豪表示,缩表和加息是未来货币政策主轴,市场的上升幅度是一个“牛”的走势,但是风险也将越来越近。他还表示,预计第三季度和第四季度,企业并购投资概念将影响市场走势。“因为美联储流动性紧缩,所以一些企业,尤其是金融以及科技板块的一些大企业会选择收购小企业,这种合并或支持美股的增长。”他说。
欧洲股市方面,李振豪认为,若从近十年的数据来看,目前欧股的估值比美股更具有吸引力,其盈利增长也有从落后地位追赶上来的趋势,尤其是工业、汽车业以及科技相关的人工智能等领域的企业股票均有增长点。不过,他也提示称,欧洲股市的风险不可忽略,比如欧州央行的被动立场以及欧洲政局的不稳等都是欧股面临的主要风险因素。“包括9月份德国大选在内,下半年还有一些欧洲国家也面临着领导人的选举,这些届时也会对市场带来影响。”他说。
相对欧美股市,李振豪表示比较看好亚洲股市。从估值来看,亚洲股市的估值仍较成熟股市更具有吸引力,其中港股估值吸引力还高过整体亚洲股市的吸引力。另外,从A股来看,国内一些新经济板块和宏观政策的支持会推动A股向好。
相对股市,李振豪对债券市场的看法则不尽乐观。他表示,全球央行收紧流动性会令债券利率上升,不利全球债市,尤其是国债价格可能会持续走弱。不过他同时表示,企业债的表现可能会相对好些,因为企业的盈利好,违约率会走低。他同时强调,研究数据表明,高质量企业债与股市的相关性为负或较低,反映出其分散成熟股市风险的能力比较高。
“总的来说,风险管理是重要的,在下半年种种风险来临之时,投资者需要在股债之间合理平衡投资组合,待风险过后再卖出债券买入股票。”李振豪表示。
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