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量能不足 股指将冲高回落

2017-08-21 10:47:58   中国经济网

市场利率易紧难松

8月18日上证指数收报3268.72点,上涨0.01%,全天两市成交4799.1亿元,比上一个交易日的5253.4亿元减少454.3亿元,量能萎缩8.6%。笔者分析,在市场流动性主动收缩和美联储加息预期不断升温的背景下,金融市场资金面压力依然较大。A股缩量反弹并未带动股价再次走高,大规模的获利抛盘将打压股价,股指面临大幅下跌的风险。

货币政策难以宽松

“稳中求进”控杠杆仍是管理层目前调控的核心,受此影响,货币市场利率易紧难松的环境尚难改观。在金融统计数据中,货币信贷和社会融资规模是社会关注度最高的两个指标。居民发工资以后的第一选择未必是存款,很可能是买银行理财或者货币基金,因为收益率远高于银行存款,而银行理财或者货币基金大多没有算在M2里面。这个指标对于银行来说,意义更加重要,因为越来越多的钱不存在银行了,日益庞大的理财和货币基金让银行的负债压力越来越大。2011年启用至今的社会融资规模,克服了货币信贷只收集银行系统数据的缺陷,在更大的范围内为市场描绘了社会信用体系全貌。

中国人民银行8月15日公布7月末数据,广义货币(M2)同比增长9.2%,低于市场预期的9.5%,比上月末低0.2个百分点,再创历史新低,为连续第六个月放缓。笔者分析,M2增速持续低迷是金融体系内部去杠杆的客观结果。同期发布的社会融资规模存量统计数据报告显示,2017年7月末社会融资规模存量为168.01万亿元,同比增长13.2%。其中,对实体经济发放的人民币贷款余额为114.31万亿元,同比增长13.5%,占同期社会融资规模存量的68%,同比高0.1个百分点。

图为最近两个月以来的隔夜Shibor走势

作为中国市场中货币流动性的标尺,隔夜Shibor(上海银行间同业拆放利率)对股票市场的影响较大,是股票市场的领先指标。上周五,Shibor全线上涨,短期品种涨幅收窄。其中,隔夜Shibor上涨0.03bp,报2.8355%,创出6月22日以来新高;7天Shibor上涨0.13bp,报2.8940%;1个月Shibor上涨0.62bp,报3.8644%。隔夜Shibor连续上升说明银行间资金紧张。当前货币转紧威力已经开始显现,A股市场依然压力不小。

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